Contemplating Out Loud | Contemplating

Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer

Kit Webster

Themes and Theses

Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud

(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)

The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.

The crisis will be serious and could be existential.

Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.

International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.

There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.

Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.

Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.

Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.

Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.

There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.

(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.

(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.

(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.

(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.

(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.

(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.

The Iran War Continues - The World Is Changing

March 20, 2026

Quotes to Contemplate

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. - Phillip Dick

Some people dream of having a swimming pool at home, while those who have one hardly ever use it. Those who have lost a loved one feel a profound sense of loss, while others often complain about their living relatives. Those without a partner long for one, while those who have one often don't appreciate it. The hungry would give anything for a meal, while the satiated complain about the taste of their food. Those without a car dream of owning one, while those who have a car are always looking for a better one. - Hiroyuki Sanada

What if the only thing protecting us from all this was Chuck Norris? - Lyn Alden

Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue

I want to be calm, measured and objective here.

The attack on Iran was an extraordinarily short-sighted, arrogant, destructive move. The longer it goes on, the greater the repercussions.

Putin's move on Ukraine was stupid, but it only directly affected one country. This war is affecting the entire planet.

For the first time, my shit's-gonna-break-loose meter is now above 50%. My recent use of Pandora's box as a metaphor is becoming increasingly apt.

It's too early to be dramatic, but this war could be the pivot point for many trends, particularly the American-led world order. The longer the war lasts, the more profound the changes will be.

And, it is still several decades in political years until the midterms, but for the first time, my Republicans-are-going-to-lose-the-House-and-the-Senate meter is also now above 50%.

The Jones Act is another significant example of how politicians fundamentally do not understand Economics 101 (and neither does the public, which demands that politicians act).

Markets

Updated charts

Uglier and uglier.

Notes On Iran

>I want to be calm, measured and objective here.

The attack on Iran was an extraordinarily short-sighted, arrogant, destructive move. The longer it goes on, the greater the repercussions.

Putin's move on Ukraine was stupid, but it only directly affected one country. This war is affecting the entire planet.

> Having said that, we all overemphasize the current moment and extrapolate without enough context. It is important to recognize that fact and to take deep breaths. It is a rare skill to know precisely when to panic. My breaths are getting shorter and my heart is beginning to pound, but it is too early to panic - yet.

> For the first time, my shit's-gonna-happen meter is now above 50%.

> It is still several decades in political years until the midterms, but for the first time, my Republicans-are-going-to-lose-the-House-and-the-Senate meter is also now above 50%

> Trump calls for Nato allies' help in the Strait of Hormuz , actually threatening them if they don't help ... and nobody comes. It's too early to be dramatic, but this war could be the pivot point for many trends, particularly the American-led world order.

> Something to look out for - as oil becomes scarcer and prices rise, the US begins banning exports of oil derivative products and perhaps natural gas.

> Tankers are still on the water from before the war. As they land and unload with nothing behind them, the clock begins ticking - first for Asia and then for the rest of the world.

> One of the challenges of a deep decapitation is that no one is left in charge. It is not clear, but it appears that power in Iran has splintered among the mullahs and different factions of the IRGC. It looks like China is trying to facilitate and mediate peace talks.

> Reports say that the Saudi crown prince is urging Trump to keep pounding on Iran.

> Long lines are forming outside cooking gas dealers across India as fears of shortages spread following disruptions to fuel imports linked to the war in the Middle East.

> While the world debates oil prices and war strategy, the actual crisis is unfolding in silence. The molecules that produce half the planet’s food are physically trapped behind a war zone. And the biological window to apply them closes in weeks.

> Energy infrastructure is increasingly being destroyed in the conflict.

> My odds of boots on the ground by the US have increased to over 50%. The odds of nuclear have increased to maybe 10%.

> Jim Bianco - Let me offer discussion points on why they decided to bomb Kharg Island. The administration and military planners likely concluded that it would take weeks, if not months, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. During that time, oil prices could rise to levels that would suffocate the global economy. This was unacceptable. They are desperate for immediate action. So, they needed a bold, decisive move to force Iran to relent quickly. Trump was clear. They bombed Iranian military structures on Kharg but left the oil infrastructure unharmed (assuming this is accurate). Recognizing that this could freak out oil markets, they announced it on Friday evening to give markets 48 hours to digest the news. Trump also made it explicit that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran did not allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz. In football terms, they're throwing a Hail Mary pass now, hoping it works. They don't have any more time on the clock. Oil markets and the world economy cannot wait weeks or months for the military to open the Strait. Further, I could envision political advisors suggesting that if oil prices are destined to hit $200 without this action, it might as well happen next week, giving six months to bring them down before the midterm elections. As I've argued in many other posts, Trump cannot simply declare victory and pull out (TACO). That would be worse. It would leave Iran in control of the world's economic jugular, allowing it to punish everyone by permanently holding oil at $200. So, they must force Iran to relent. Again, these are just the thoughts running through my head as I try to explain to myself why they took this step.

> The closure of the strait of Hormuz is causing a “paralyzing, real-time problem” for any prospective manufacturing surge in the US defense industrial base, and even for the repair of defense equipment damaged by Iranian attacks, according to analysis published by West Point’s Modern War Institute.

In particular sulphur, a vital upstream input in the extraction of critical minerals including copper and cobalt, has seen a “near total” disruption of seaborne trade in the straits, which makes up half the world’s total shipments, and prices have spiked nearly 25% since the war began, and seen a 165% rise year on year, the report said.

According to the analysis, these minerals – used in everything from microprocessors to jet engines to drone batteries – “dictate how fast things can be built and scaled under the pressure of an ongoing war”, and the effects of a sudden supply shock on US defense readiness have never been modeled.

> See an article by Ian Bremmer at the bottom of this newsletter.

The cover of The Economist is often considered a contrary indicator - here's hoping.

Reminiscing - Peter, Paul and Mary

Last night I noticed a Peter, Paul and Mary PBS fundraiser. on the TV schedule.

I'm of a certain age where I grew up amidst protests over civil rights and the Vietnam War. I was a big folk music fan, from Joan Baez to the Kingston Trio. The first performer I remember buying their records (45s and 78s, for those in the know) was Harry Belafonte. Did not, and do not, care much for Bob Dylan, although I enjoy covers of some of his songs.

In spite of having been raised in the segregated South, I was pro-civil-rights, and, after the Vietnam War got under way, anti-Vietnam War. (Long story, my draft lottery number was coming up so I tried to enlist to be able to add a little control to the process. I was on my way to Germany as a computer programmer for the Air Force. Failed the physical.)

Protests were everywhere. I marched a little, but only a little. Otherwise I was pretty passive - living inside my head as usual.

I remember one night, years ago, when we were watching a Crosby, Stills special for Beth (who is 9 years younger than I and therefore lives in a different universe, music-wise), I noticed that the Peter, Paul and Mary fundraiser was running at the same time and, during a commercial, quickly switched over. I heard a Peter, Paul and Mary chord and immediately teared up. That chord contained ten years of my young life inside of it.

Beth took one for the team and we went to a Peter, Paul and Mary concert (in fairness, we had previously been to a Crosby, Stills concert). Peter and Paul were holding up pretty well, but Mary was dying of leukemia, and it and age were taking a toll on her voice.

They were the epitome of bleeding heart liberals and took up every cause they encountered. I didn't - and don't - care, one way or the other in terms of my enjoyment of their music. The things that matter are the words, the melody, the harmony.

But I noticed their protests against nuclear power during the fundraiser. In an age when we are desperate for nuclear power, one of the reasons we cannot get it is because the protests of the 60s, combined with nuclear accidents, led to a revulsion in public sentiment that we still have not recovered from.

People like Belafonte, Baez and Peter, Paul and Mary are extraordinary expressions of humanity.

And, their lack of nuance and understanding of complexity and trade-offs can be a real problem.

Another metaphor for the way the world works.

But, for better and for worse, you rarely change the world by being reasonable.

I found the fundraiser last night too late to hear any of my favorite songs, so today will be a YouTube day.

AI on AI

So, You Say You Want A Revolution?

(I will explicitly note any use of AI throughout this newsletter. If there is no AI-note, you can assume it is either my writing or a quote from a news source.)

> A newly released study by the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), nearly 50 percent of Muslims under the age of 40 in Germany hold “Islamist” views, with these Muslims expressing an attraction to Islamism, a preference for Sharia law over the German Basic Law, and harboring anti-Semitic prejudices.

> Putin has sent a tanker full of oil to Cuba, inviting confrontation with the US.

> A number of British city councils have issued a guidance on conducting classes in the wake of Muslim integration.

The guidance, titled “Sharing the Journey,” originates from northern Labour councils like Leeds, Calderdale, Oldham, and Wakefield, and has been adopted by others including Sefton and Tameside. It explicitly states that “for some Muslim parents, sensitivities may exist in connection with the teaching of aspects of art, dance, drama, music, physical education, religious education and RSHE”.

Teachers are advised: “It is very important that the school understands this and is also careful not to ask its students to reproduce images of Jesus, the Prophet Mohammed or other figures considered to be prophets in Islam. Some Muslim pupils may not wish to draw the human figure.” This stems from hadith interpretations prohibiting images of living beings, viewed as idolatrous by some sects.

The restrictions don’t stop at art. On music, the document notes: “in Islam, music is traditionally limited to the human voice and non-tuneable percussion instruments as in the days of the Prophet, when they were only used in marriage ceremonies and on the battlefield”. It adds that “schools should listen to any concerns, discuss the place of music in the curriculum and ensure that students are not asked to join in songs that conflict with their religious beliefs”.

Dance lessons face similar scrutiny, with warnings that they could cause parental concerns over “physical contact between males and females”. The overall aim, per the introduction, is to play a part in “building harmony and understanding” and fostering “cohesion” in local communities.

This guidance ties directly into Labour’s escalating surveillance in schools. As we previously reported, Communities Secretary Steve Reed announced: “Today, we are adopting a non-statutory definition of anti-Muslim hostility. This gives a clear explanation of unacceptable prejudice, discrimination and hatred targeting Muslims, so we can take action to stop it.”

> A quick editorial on Cuba.

In the 1950s Cuba was a reasonably prosperous, corrupt country that was a tourist destination for Americans and others. It was governed by a dictatorship, had significant income inequality and an economy based on sugar cane. Castro's revolution turned it into a communist country. Perhaps 2 million Cubans have migrated to the US since the revolution. In 1960, the US put economic sanctions on the country that increased over time.

This was during the Cold War, so the enemy of my enemy is my friend - the USSR adopted and supported Cuba while its communist economy staggered and stumbled. In 1961 the US sponsored the failed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. The Cuban Missile Crisis occurred in 1962, when the USSR moved to place missiles in Cuba. Following the collapse of the USSR, Venezuela supported Cuba - which continued to be a very poor, struggling country. With the US's increased influence over Venezuela, Venezuela has withdrawn its support, leaving Cuba literally destitute.

On their knees, literally without hope, Cuba is coming to the US for salvation.

It is likely that Cuba will, over time, turn back into a playground of the Americas with luxury hotels. The average standard of living should significantly increase.

It is not clear what Cuba's relationship with the US will be - some have said it should be a state; others a territory like Puerto Rico; others that it should be its own country.

The revolution was a disaster for Cuba. Communism does not work particularly well economically and will perform even more poorly in a country with few resources like Cuba.

However, the suffering inflicted on Cubans by the US for over 60 years is, imo, tragic and immoral. Geopolitics demands that Cubans be crushed. They did not want what the US had on offer and tried to muddle through. Now, 14 million people are destitute and on their knees.

Simply tragic and sad.

"Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated on state television that his government has entered talks with the Trump administration, aimed at "finding solutions through dialogue" to longstanding bilateral differences between the two neighboring countries. This admission comes as the Caribbean island faces crude oil and diesel stockpiles running dry by the end of the month, after Trump's multi-month crude shipment blockade sharply tightened pressure on the communist regime in Havana.

In a speech broadcast on Cuban state TV, Díaz-Canel said that discussions with the Trump administration were intended to "determine the willingness of both sides to take concrete actions for the benefit of the people of both countries."

"Agendas are being built, negotiations are underway, conversations are taking place and agreements are being reached, things from which we are still far away because we are in the initial phases," Díaz-Canel said."

> The rest of the story - Joe Rogan meets Paul Harvey here.

> TSA lines from hell are getting longer as Democrats pursue their petty pissing contests with DHS funding. The people that are still working are working for no pay. Let that sink in.

> Historical evolution of the physical White House here.

> Trump is delaying his meeting with Xi due to the Iran War.

> I have talked about my love/hate relationship with Pippa Malmgren. Often brilliant; often bonkers; sometimes just cutesy. Well, she has just published (behind a paywall) a lengthy treatise about the deep state (although it is international in scope). In her view, Trump is playing 4D chess and is up against multiple generations of grand manipulators. If she is right - "there are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy." (That quote is for you, CH.)

Claude and I had a chat about her treatise. It is too complicated to explain all the terms, but here is Claude's conclusion: "This is serious geopolitical writing that deserves serious engagement, even where one disagrees with specific claims or finds the evidentiary basis uneven. The Lustration/Conciliatism framework in particular is a genuinely useful analytical contribution to a public discourse that tends to oscillate between "prosecute everyone" and "move on." The energy geopolitics and the incentive insurgency analysis are grounded and worth taking seriously.

The essay is at its weakest when it leans into the maximalist Epstein narrative and when the "Apotheosis" framework risks becoming a self-sealing prophecy. The strongest version of this argument doesn't need the most extraordinary claims — the structural observations about institutional paralysis, mutual kompromat, and the limits of procedural justice are compelling enough to stand on their own."

If Pippa and Claude are right, we are not only in a Fourth Turning, we are in the mother of all Fourth Turnings with mixed metaphors everywhere - flocks and flocks of chickens coming home to roost, shepherded by a flock of black swans. A major disruption in the world order with Trump as the disrupter and agent of change.

I have no idea. It has a core of truth and its inferences are plausible. My primary hesitation is that my opinion of Trump is that he is not capable of having the kind of incredible vision required to conceptualize this, much less put it into motion. I also view him as part of the prevailing culture and power structure - not the US, liberal tradition of the past decades (although that is a part of the whole, epitomized in the political sphere by Biden and particularly Clinton), but the broader culture of the corruption of international, mostly wealthy power players - the ninth circle of power and influence.

I may be letting the trees obscure the forest and my opinions may be getting in the way of my being able to see clearly.

While that is my continual battle, this may be an area that needs particular focus.

> Should the White House look more like the Supreme Court Building? The chairman of the Commission of Fine Arts, Rodney Mims Cook, Jr., has suggested swapping the White House’s “graceful Ionic columns” for “more ornate” Corinthian columns, the style of columns used for the Supreme Court, according to The Washington Post. “Corinthian is the highest order” of column, Cook said.

> The Jones Act is one of those political performances that backfired - politicians ignoring Economics 101. It has basically destroyed shipbuilding in the US and led to suboptimum outcomes. Claude explains it to you below, but Trump has issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act because of energy prices and the Iran War.

The Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920)

What It Is

The Jones Act is a federal law requiring that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on ships that are U.S.-built, U.S.-owned, U.S.-registered, and crewed by U.S. citizens or permanent residents. Enacted in the aftermath of WWI, its stated goals were to maintain a robust domestic shipbuilding industry and a ready fleet of merchant vessels that could support national defense in wartime.

Key Provisions

Applies to all domestic waterborne commerce (coastwise trade)
Ships must be constructed in U.S. shipyards
At least 75% of crew must be U.S. citizens or permanent residents
Vessels must be owned by U.S. citizens and fly the U.S. flag

Impact & Outcomes

Arguments in its favor:

National security — maintains a trained merchant marine and domestic shipbuilding capacity that can be mobilized during conflict
Domestic jobs — protects tens of thousands of maritime industry jobs (shipbuilders, sailors, port workers)
Strategic independence — reduces reliance on foreign-flagged vessels for critical supply chains

Criticisms and negative outcomes:

Higher shipping costs — U.S.-built ships cost 3–5x more than foreign-built equivalents, and operating costs are substantially higher, raising prices for consumers in affected markets
Island territories bear the heaviest burden — Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam cannot use cheaper foreign vessels for goods from the mainland, inflating the cost of nearly everything from food to fuel. Studies have estimated Puerto Rico pays hundreds of millions annually in excess shipping costs
Weakened domestic shipbuilding — ironically, the high cost of compliance has shrunk the U.S. commercial fleet dramatically; the Jones Act fleet today is a fraction of what it was mid-century
Disaster relief delays — after Hurricane Maria (2017), the Trump administration had to issue a temporary waiver to allow foreign ships to deliver aid to Puerto Rico, highlighting how the law can hamper emergency response
Energy market distortions — U.S. oil and gas cannot always be efficiently shipped between domestic ports, sometimes making it cheaper to import foreign oil than to move domestic supply coastwise

The Bottom Line

The Jones Act is a classic example of a protectionist policy with real trade-offs. It achieves some of its defense and labor goals but at significant economic cost — costs that fall disproportionately on geographically isolated communities with no alternative to maritime shipping. Reform efforts arise periodically in Congress but consistently stall due to strong lobbying from the domestic maritime industry and unions.

> Pritzker is on the list of Democrat presidential candidates - this should scare the crap out of you regardless of whether you think "they" deserve it:

Q: “What is a project 2029 agenda look like for you?” (This is a play on the Republican project 2025.)

JB Pritzker: “Criminally prosecuted, civilly prosecuted, whatever it is that we can do. Right? It may be that you can't criminally prosecute somebody, but that you can go after them civilly.”

This is part of Pippa's "Lustration/Conciliatism framework." (Lustration is when you address all past wrongs not through confrontation, but by basically not allowing the bad guys to participate in the process going forward. Conciliation is bringing two differing parties together to try and reach agreement through a mediator. Confrontation a la Pritzker will be very destructive.)

> Cesar Chavez has been accused of raping and abusing women and children. Chavez will be canceled. Every city in the country has one street named after him. Austin is already considering renaming its street. Texas has taken Cesar Chavez Day off its list of recognized days.

> Pakistan has been bombing Kabul.

Short Takes

> There comes a time when the pushback begins -

Las Vegas Metro police are refusing to release a violent repeat offender, in defiance of a local judge’s order.

The career criminal, 36-year-old Joshua Sanchez-Lopez, has been arrested 35 times, with a rap sheet that includes involuntary manslaughter, drugs and car theft, according to the New York Post.

The legal standoff began in January, when police arrested Sanchez-Lopez on a warrant for grand larceny of a motor vehicle.

Justice Eric Goodman set Sanchez-Lopez’s bail at $25,000 and ordered his release with an ankle monitor once he posted bond.

The program allows defendants to leave jail and wear an ankle bracelet. Various levels of the program require different levels of confinement. Goodman ordered Sanchez-Lopez to high-level electronic monitoring, which Dickerson described as house arrest. About 450 defendants are in the program at a time.

Sanchez-Lopez reportedly posted bail on January 24, but the Las Vegas police refused to place him in the program, given his history of failing to comply with the rules. Attorneys for Metro filed a petition last week challenging the judge’s authority to release him, arguing that the Department has the authority to declare a defendant too dangerous to release.

> Mamdani announces he would like to change the speed limit to 20mph on all streets in NYC. So, he wants the average speed, particularly crosstown, to go up, then?

Gallery

It's actually worse than that - there is no indication that this is inflation adjusted.

Miscellaneous

Ian Bremmer on Putin as the Winner of the Iran War

Three weeks into the US-Israeli war against Iran, the list of losers is unusually long. Iran is getting devastated. The United States is trapped in an asymmetric conflict it can't exit. Gulf states are absorbing infrastructure damage they never signed up for. The developing world is facing food and energy crises. I could keep going.

Washington and Tehran may yet declare victory, but the biggest geopolitical winner is sitting in Moscow, and he didn’t have to do anything but watch.

President Vladimir Putin couldn’t have timed this better. Russia's budget was in crisis heading into March. Oil and gas revenues had collapsed by roughly 50% year-on-year by February due to US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, declining purchases from India and China, and depressed energy prices. The Kremlin blew through nearly its entire full-year budget deficit target in just the first two months of 2026 and was preparing 10% cuts to non-essential spending – everything but military and social outlays. Sustaining the Ukraine war meant making tough choices.

Then the United States and Israel attacked Iran, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices spiked. Moscow’s fiscal picture was transformed overnight.

Brent crude, sitting at a five-year low of $59 a barrel in December, is now hovering around $100. Russian Urals crude, long sold at a steep discount thanks to Western sanctions, has narrowed the gap to the high $80s-low $90s – buyers need barrels and Russia has them. Every $10 per barrel increase sustained over a month adds $1.6 billion to Kremlin coffers. If prices rise $20 per barrel for the year, Russia gains 1.5% of GDP – enough so Putin no longer has to choose between guns and butter.

As if that weren’t enough, the Trump administration – desperate to relieve global supply pressure – has eased sanctions on Russian crude. Washington removed restrictions on Indian purchases and issued a sanctions waiver for Russian barrels already at sea. Temporary, at least for now, but the signal is unmistakable: the US needs Russian oil flowing to stabilize markets while Hormuz stays closed. The sanctions relief doesn’t immediately translate into massive revenue gains – much of the exempted oil had already been sold and taxed under Russia's extraction-based system. But it eliminates downside risk and reinforces Putin’s core assumption: Russia can outlast Western pressure.

Before the Iran war, there was a plausible argument that mounting economic strain would eventually increase pressure on Moscow toward a deal on Ukraine. That argument is now weaker. Higher oil revenue removes the Kremlin's near-term sustainability concerns, and the softening sanctions regime signals that Western resolve is as brittle as Putin suspected. The EU's 20th sanctions package has stalled, and this time it’s not just Hungary's Viktor Orban – facing a tough reelection in April – blocking it. Belgium's Prime Minister Bart De Wever this week called publicly for normalizing relations with Russia to access cheap energy, then claimed that privately “European leaders tell me I am right, but no one dares say it out loud.” Countries that spent years weaning themselves off Russian energy after 2022 are now asking whether they can afford to finish the job.

Moscow’s budget planners are still proceeding cautiously, maintaining spending cuts and reserve fund policies in case prices fall. But the internal discussion has shifted. If oil prices stay elevated for another few months, Russia’s budget stabilizes and those austerity plans get shelved.

To be clear, the fiscal windfall doesn't itself resolve Russia's binding military constraints. Technological capacity and skilled labor, not money, limit the breakthrough potential of Russian offensive operations. But additional revenue does buy Russia time to prosecute the Ukraine war without economic pressure forcing compromise – a longer runway to try to outlast Ukraine and the West. A ceasefire, already unlikely, has become less likely still.

The battlefield picture reinforces this. Ukraine faces a growing shortfall in air-defense systems as Patriot missile interceptors, already in short supply, are being diverted to the Persian Gulf to defend American bases and Gulf installations from Iranian strikes. Other Western air defense systems purchased by Europeans are at risk of similar diversion if needed by NATO allies in the Iran theater. Meanwhile, Russia's offensive capability is unaffected – its Shahed-136 drones are manufactured domestically in Tatarstan as Geran-2s, no longer dependent on Iranian supply. Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure, and defense production facilities will encounter degraded defenses, cause more damage, and kill more civilians as a result.

This shift is happening just as Russia's spring offensive is expected to pick up. Ukrainian forces are defending capably and even mounting localized counterattacks – they took back a small chunk of territory in Donetsk last month after Russia was cut off from Starlink along parts of the front. But holding the line will get harder as air defense gaps widen.

Diplomatically, the pressure that might have forced Russian concessions has evaporated. Heading into early March, there was still momentum toward negotiations. The hope was that economic pressure plus military stalemate plus American insistence would create conditions for Putin to moderate his maximalist demands and accept some version of a ceasefire. That’s gone. Western bandwidth is entirely consumed by Iran. Planned talks in Turkey have been suspended. Trump eased sanctions on Russia instead of tightening them. He told President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine now had "even fewer cards" than before – even as Ukrainian air defense experts were in the Gulf helping defend against Iranian drones. Putin now has zero reasons to soften his position.

Even if the Iran war ends in the coming weeks, the damage to Ukraine’s position is lasting. Russia’s budget is stabilized for the year. Ukrainian air defenses have been depleted in ways that take months to rebuild, assuming replacement systems even become available. Western attention and pressure have shifted away from Ukraine. The window for forcing Russian compromises, narrow even before Iran, has closed.

One could argue that Iran’s devastation makes Russia look weak. Putin has watched the United States dismantle his alliance network one partner at a time, with Khamenei now joining Assad, Maduro, and a teetering Cuba. Among Russia's domestic hardliners, staying on the sidelines while another ally falls to US military action could be seen as a humiliation and create more pressure to deliver a decisive outcome in Ukraine.

But Putin didn’t need to intervene in Iran. As I’ve written before, Russia and Iran were always partners of convenience, not genuine allies; their relationship is transactional, built on mutual sanctions exposure and shared antagonism toward the West, not strategic trust or deep dependence. Putin did get away with providing the Iranians with tactical guidance and targeting data on American military assets in the region, a show of solidarity with operational value and no blowback. But more overt support would risk direct confrontation with the United States, jeopardize relationships with Gulf states that are important for sustaining Russia’s wartime economy, and divert military resources from Ukraine.

Staying out is the smarter play – which makes the two Russian oil tankers now heading to Cuba look like an unforced error. The shipments, Cuba's first energy deliveries in three months, are arriving just as Trump threatens a “friendly takeover” of the island and risk undoing the sanctions relief Moscow just gained. Russia stands to get all the upside with none of the downside: economic reprieve, military advantage in Ukraine, diplomatic space to hold out for maximal demands, and the geopolitical benefit of watching the United States exhaust itself prosecuting a failing war while eroding its own credibility and deterrence.

The strategic implications extend beyond Ukraine. The Iran war is reinforcing Putin’s worldview about US unilateralism and legitimizing his disdain for norms against territorial conquest and political interference. That’ll embolden more aggressive Russian actions in Moscow’s so-called “near abroad.” The Baltics, the Caucasus, and Moldova all face heightened vulnerabilities as American unreliability and European paralysis undermine the credibility of Western security commitments.

There's a broader takeaway here that Moscow won't have missed. A much weaker state is imposing high costs on the United States through asymmetric means, forcing Washington to ease sanctions on a strategic rival, and demonstrating that America’s overwhelming military dominance is constrained by its low tolerance for pain. Western power, it turns out, is only as credible as the political will to sustain it. That's a lesson with implications well beyond Iran and Ukraine.