Contemplating Out Loud | Contemplating

Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer

Kit Webster

Themes and Theses

Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud

(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)

The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.

The crisis will be serious and could be existential.

Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.

International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.

There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.

Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.

Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.

Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.

Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.

There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.

(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.

(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.

(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.

(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.

(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.

(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.

"The Worst Form of Government, Except All Others"

June 6, 2026

Quotes to Contemplate

Every meeting I have is: Who can we tax to pay benefits to others? - Labour Party leader in the UK

Demons can break into the physical world & at times they can be seen. We actually have some photos of such things & that we have documented. - Msgr. Stephen J. Rossetti, chief exorcist for the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Washington

Most people do not understand that the real AI wall is the rapidly increasing energy need. - Sabine Hossenfelder

We had meetings with the Biden admin where they told us to not even start AI companies because there's no way they'll let them succeed. - Marc Andreessen

Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue

A self-governing republic can only survive if its citizens possess civic virtue—the intellectual capacity, self-restraint, and active participation required to maintain liberty.

There is no end in sight to the Iran War.

There is a gasoline price spike several weeks out as strategic reserves become dangerously empty.

Paxton and Platner represent the nadir of integrity for both parties - and for us, because it is we who have been voting for them. Simply disgusting.

Today is the anniversary of D-Day.

So, You Say You Want A Revolution?

> Point to ponder - in this era in which Ukraine terrorizes Russia with drones, the Hothis have shut ships out of the Gulf and run off British and French navies, and Iranian drones have neutralized Americans, what asymmetric warfare would China face if it attacks Taiwan?

> A judge ordered the removal of Donald Trump’s name from the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, ruling that the prestigious Washington DC venue cannot be renamed without an act of Congress.

> Washington state has approved a new law targeting drivers with serious speeding violations by requiring them to use speed-limiting technology before regaining limited driving privileges.

Beginning in January 2029, drivers whose licenses were suspended for reckless driving or excessive speeding will need to install an “intelligent speed assistance” device in their vehicles to qualify for a restricted license. Using GPS tracking, the system monitors a vehicle’s speed and prevents drivers from exceeding a programmed limit. The law allows only three manual overrides each month.

The bill classifies excessive speeding as driving at least 10 mph over the limit in areas posted at 40 mph or below, or 20 mph over the limit on faster roads. Washington is one of several states moving toward stricter enforcement measures for repeat dangerous drivers, following similar efforts in places like New York.

> Federal appeals court allows Texas to carry out its own migrant arrests & deportations.

> Ebola is still uncontained.

> Diversity is coming full circle. In the UK a staging of Dreamgirls was canceled for lack of diversity.

This is a first that I know of where there is pushback for having no whites in a black presentation. Blacks have gotten a free pass.

While I think it is karma and my first reaction is schadenfreude, I don't like it.

The Supremes were black. The blackness is important. They should be played by black artists.

> Definitely on brand - Bernie Sanders proposes the government take 50% of OpenAI & Anthropic to give the public a “direct ownership stake.”

> Appeals court rules Trump's ban on trans troops is unconstitutional.

> Trump's appointment of Pulte as acting director of national intelligence is another example of personnel incompetence.

> Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told a House Appropriations subcommittee Tuesday that the Justice Department would abandon plans for a $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund.” This is partially due to Republicans' displeasure over the act.

> As a follow-up to my thoughts on the effects of over-reacting to racial issues, look up the Henry Novak struggle in the UK. It is too detailed to go into here, but a white kid was stabbed by an Indian who played the race card. The police brushed aside the victim's plea for help for being stabbed and handcuffed him as he died. As one writer put it, "There is nothing worse to the police than being accused of racism." Much upset in the UK although exactly zero coverage in the mainstream media in the US, another symptom of the same disease. Ironically, the victim complained multiple times, ironically, "I can't breathe." There is hope that this death and the victim's treatment by the police will lead to a reexamination of policies. Protests have arisen across the UK and news of the protests is beginning to be reported in the US.

UK policing has become specifically anti-white, a logical conclusion of current social trends, both here and there, but diminished here during the Trump administration. The UK is ahead of the US in the cycle and the Novak case has initiated backlash.

Separately, South Wales Police directs officers to record conversations and comments about Islam that stray beyond what the force deems "legitimate" discussion.

> While I emphasize the expectations of knowledge and analysis from a population that has an average IQ of 100, IQ is not everything - it is a tool you have to learn how to use:

"On the 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) writing assessment, which is the most recent comprehensive writing benchmark, only 24 percent of 12th graders reached the Proficient level, and just 3 percent reached Advanced; another 21 percent scored below Basic. The reading side of the ledger is worse, and getting worse fast: The 2024 NAEP results released in September 2025 show 12th-grade reading scores at the lowest level recorded since the assessment began in 1992. Thirty-two percent of 12th graders now score below NAEP Basic in reading, meaning that, in the assessment’s own language, they likely “cannot draw general conclusions based on concepts presented explicitly in a text.” And yet more than half of these same seniors reported being accepted to a four-year college. That last sentence is the whole problem in one line: We are admitting a cohort that cannot read at a college level and are pretending otherwise.”"

> The team matters, that is all - Schumer: "As I said I endorsed Graham Platner... We're going to beat Susan Collins and take back to the Senate."

It's not clear to me whether Paxton or Platner is more disgusting.

> Interesting question on which I do not, yet, have an opinion - will AI ultimately be nationalized?

> The House passed a War Powers act, restricting Trump's actions in the Iran War. It has little possibility of going into law, but is more evidence of Republicans willing to break with Trump.

> Cloudflare reported that, for the first time in history, the percentage of internet traffic generated by automated bots has surpassed that generated by humans.

> It's not going away, you know - New York Democrats replace the word "mothers" with "gestating parents" in new bill.

"The Worst Form of Government - Except All Others"

I am genuinely repulsed by the choice of Paxton and Talarico for the US Senate from Texas.

Texas is crazy, but Graham Platner is disgusting, and he is competitive in solid, no-nonsense Maine.

The Democrat candidate for Texas Attorney General has exactly zero trial experience.

This is beyond socialism and word salads - ideology and personal quirks. We are insisting on electing unqualified people - sometimes worse than simply unqualified.

And then, when you think about it, qualifications don't matter that much. What matters is whether they are on the right team and give good TV and promise goodies.

Contemplating our condition leads to despair.

We are literally destroying ourselves.

It's not clear why we should expect anything better.

Even independents who have done their homework wind up voting for the least bad candidate.

People elect candidates based on the state of the economy or based on single issues, such as abortion.

The majority does not pay attention to the issues at all and certainly does not spend any time contemplating existential problems like debt, deficit and entitlements.

When some do get all worked up about an issue, say global warming, the reactions are uninformed and hysterical (and I am a "believer" in global warming).

On the other hand, from a candidate's perspective, how do you form a campaign directed at the average voter with an IQ of 100?

This is not any way to run a country.

Democracy has had a bad rep from the beginning.

Actually, it was simultaneously viewed as the best and the worst form of government, according to Aristotle (Plato didn't think much of it because of its populist flaws).

Both Aristotle and Plato saw the beginnings of democracy in Athens, first hand.

Both philosophers felt that good and bad government essentially was rooted in good and "bad" people

Plato thought the best form of government was rule by a philosopher king - the very best kind of person.

Aristotle, oversimplifying, said that any form of government could be good or bad, depending on who led it. A good king could be wonderful; a bad king, terrible.

As for democracy, Aristotle thought it could be the best, and one of the worst, forms of government.

The problem with democracy is encapsulated in the following quote by Alexander Fraser Tytler, “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”

According to Aristotle, and to our Founders, it was critical that the voters be well versed in civics and well informed as to the issues. The Federalist Papers say that a self-governing republic can only survive if its citizens possess civic virtue—the intellectual capacity, self-restraint, and active participation required to maintain liberty.

Why can democracy be the best form of government?

Ironically, not principally for all the ideological reasons. Mostly for practical reasons.

It avoids very negative outcomes.

It provides an arena where different factions can have their say and then win or lose "fair and square.'

Historically, one of the biggest issues was power succession. Literally countless wars have occurred to decide who gets to have power next. Democracy provides a peaceful transition - something almost unheard of in the prior millennia.

When the American painter Benjamin West told the King, George III, that Washington planned to step down from military power and return to his farm after winning the Revolutionary War, the King was stunned. Historically, victorious generals seized the throne; the concept of voluntarily walking away from absolute power was unheard of. George III reportedly remarked, "If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world."

And, he was.

Here is AI's summary of the primary benefits of the democratic form of government:

Accountability and Representation: Citizens have a decisive say in who governs them. Through regular, free, and fair elections, the public can peacefully replace leaders who do not serve their interests.
Protection of Civil Liberties: Democracies uphold essential human rights, including freedom of speech, religion, and peaceful assembly, which allow individuals to live freely and with dignity.
The Rule of Law: Democratic systems operate under the principle that no individual is above the law—even the most wealthy or powerful. This ensures legal equality and fair justice.
Peaceful Power Transitions: By providing institutional processes for debate, compromise, and elections, democracies allow citizens and competing factions to resolve differences without resorting to violence or civil war.
Societal Adaptability: Democracies foster continuous improvement. Because power is decentralized, societies can self-correct, reverse poor policies, and expand civil rights over time.
Economic and Social Growth: The freedom to express ideas, challenge authority, and innovate drives creativity and economic development. Furthermore, democracies historically deliver better living standards, including greater access to healthcare, education, and social mobility.

Democracy is the best form of government.

Until its participants begin to game the system.

Then it becomes one of the worst. Aristotle only put tyranny below a disintegrating democracy.

And that is where we are.

Aristotle and Plato and Tytler were right, and our Founders' worst fears have been realized.

We lost our civics and we vote ourselves goodies.

Something no one anticipated has happened - our Legislative branch, literally the voice of the people, has vacated the field.

We now have mostly authoritarian rule, partially mitigated by the justice system.

We are a parody, a caricature.

It had to be thus, but it is also classically tragic - a script for Euripides. The fatal flaw brings the hero down.

What is the solution?

We need two things:

Constructive leadership.
A civic population.

I don't see any signs of either, but there is always hope - the last bit of content of Pandora's box when it had emptied of all of the evil.

Pendulums do swing and it is always darkest just before dawn.

A First Turning of regeneration follows a Fourth Turning of destruction.

A First Turning is in our future.

Only, it is not clear how democracy will figure into that new world. People will be pretty tired of the bad form of democracy by then.

It will still need constructive leadership and a civic population.

("The worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried," is attributed to Winston Churchill.)

The Market

Still looking for retracements in a bull markets an for stocks and gold.

The Iran War

> It's only math - not rocket science.

The world is producing maybe 10 million barrels of oil per day less than it was before the Iran War.

That 10 million barrels has to come from somewhere.

Right now, a lot of it is coming from various strategic reserves, but those will give out here shortly.

The rest will come from "demand destruction." That is, if it isn't there, you can't use it.

Demand destruction basically comes from increased prices. Prices increase until the market clears. People, industries and nations are priced out of the market.

There will be a lot of stupid political tricks to appease justifiably irritated voters, but the laws of economics don't care. If the item is not available, it will not be sold. If politicians fix prices, what supply there is will not come to market. Subsidizing price means people will consume more at a time when everyone should consume less. This is a game that has been played hundreds, if not thousands, of times throughout history. There is no doubt as to the outcome, but we decide to play, anyway.

Once the conflict is over, it will take months to get back to normal. Oil wells have to be restarted and tankers need to be repositioned.

The world is learning several lessons, one of which is that the Strait of Hormuz may be closed. Nations are taking steps to ensure there is a workaround next time.

And the closing of the Strait has provided a significant boost to nuclear and green energy.

A lot of change going on. Many truths about military strength and economic power have been revealed, essentially none of which are to the benefit of the US.

Short Takes

> A personal note.

Today is D-Day, the day in 1944 when approximately 158,000 Allied Forces stormed the beaches of France to begin the offensive that, together with Russia's turning away Hitler's invasion, led to the defeat of the Nazis in World War II. A huge, monumental, heroic undertaking that is receding rapidly into the mist of history.

Before they slip away, I would like to honor them one more time.

> A guy named Barak Obama is running for Governor of California. Barak D Obama Shaw changed is name in honor of the former president.

Gallery

Replacement is about 2.1.

Miscellaneous

Only fair -

Spectacularly good - one of the all-time greats -

Hint