Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Kit Webster
Themes and Theses
Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud
(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)
The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.
The crisis will be serious and could be existential.
Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.
International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.
There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.
Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.
Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.
Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.
Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.
There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next five years or so will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.
(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.
(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.
(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.
(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.
We Lost The War On Drugs
December 5, 2025
Quotes to Contemplate
The thing about censorship, for those who would advocate it, just remember at some point it will turn on you. - Elon Musk
Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue
Recall that in 2020 I published an article saying that Biden's mental decline was an issue - he then declined much faster than I would have anticipated.
I am increasingly concerned about Trump. Not so much dementia, but the foot dragging, falling asleep and midnight tirades on Truth Social indicate all is not well. The problem is that he is erratic on a good day, so comparisons are difficult.
Not raising an alarm, yet, but noting that these are trends now worth watching.
In old age, you are going to decline - there is no avoiding it. Some people decline rapidly and some are sharp and relatively mobile into their late 80s. It is not clear yet where Trump shows up on this spectrum.
Trump turns 80 this June. At his age, it is all but certain that he has issues; the questions are, which issues, how severe and how rapidly are they changing?
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We decided to give up on the war on drugs, but some wars that cannot be won are worth fighting.
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You never know, but my base case is that Trump is bluffing wrt Venezuela, remembering that bluffs can get out of hand. The second bombing of the drug boat was appalling. Trump's pardoning of a "drug lord" while bombing Venezuelan drug boats is a perfect metaphor for the transactional nature of the Trump administration.
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​The Supreme Court has approved Texas' redistricting plans, opening the floodgates.
We Lost The War On Drugs
One day, long ago, I encountered the Seven Deadly Sins - you know, pride, greed, wrath, envy, lust, gluttony and sloth.
Back in 590, Pope Gregory came up with the Seven Deadly Sins, and they became a permanent part of our culture when St. Thomas Aquinas discussed them in the 13th century.
As I thought about the list, it occurred to me that these seven behaviors were a good starting point for describing human behavior, generally. They were not so much exceptions as (part of) the rule.
As one does, I turned to Claude and asked it what a modern commentary on the Seven Deadly Sins would be. I really, really liked Claude's answer:
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What a fascinating question, Kit. The traditional seven deadly sins—pride, greed, lust, gluttony, wrath, sloth, and envy—were framed around medieval concerns, but their psychological core remains remarkably relevant. Here's how I'd translate them for contemporary life:
Pride → Performative Self-Curation - The endless optimization of our public image across social media. Not confidence, but the exhausting maintenance of a curated persona that crowds out authentic self-reflection.
Greed → Optimization Obsession Beyond accumulating wealth, it's the compulsion to maximize everything—productivity, engagement, returns—treating life as an endless series of metrics to optimize rather than experiences to inhabit.
Lust → Dopamine Chasing Less about sex specifically, more about the broader pursuit of stimulation hits: endless scrolling, binge consumption, the inability to sit with boredom or discomfort.
Gluttony → Attention Overconsumption Consuming far more information, content, and input than we can meaningfully digest. The cognitive equivalent of eating until sick.
Wrath → Righteous Outrage Addiction The pleasure of moral indignation, particularly online. Anger that feels virtuous because it's directed at acceptable targets, but serves ego more than justice.
Sloth → Passive Consumption Not laziness exactly, but the drift into being a spectator of life rather than a participant—watching others live, create, and act while we scroll.
Envy → Comparison Spiral Amplified exponentially by visibility into others' highlight reels. The corrosive habit of measuring your interior against everyone else's exterior.
What strikes me is how many of these are now engineered by attention economies rather than purely individual failings. The sins have been industrialized.
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There is a lifetime of contemplation in that answer - just very, very nice. I would change the last line to be
The sins have been normalized and industrialized.
Damn.
Just magnificent.
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Anyway, sinning is part of what people do.
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Taking drugs, indulging in mind alteration including through alcohol, is also what people do. It is not an aberration, it is woven into the fabric of humanity. It clearly destroys lives, literally and figuratively, but it is what we do.
As Prohibition and the War on Drugs indicated - we are not going to stop.
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But are taking drugs and alcohol actually sins? The answer is complex, but, generally, taking drugs is frowned upon by all religions, and alcohol, without drunkenness, is usually, except for Islam, tolerated.
But, they're not in the Ten Commandments.
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Segue - we have a war on many human behaviors that are also ingrained human behaviors, and that war involves laws.
We have a war on murder.
We have a war on theft.
We have a war on battery.
We have had wars on murder, theft and battery in essentially all cultures throughout history.
And those wars can never be won.
These are also things that people do.
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These days, it's all against all in the culture wars - a topic for another time, but even more wars that can't be won.
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So, what's the point and why do we give up on one losing battle, drugs, and continue another, murder? Why is the war on alcohol half-hearted or nonexistent while the wars on fentanyl and heroin are stronger?
It's not so much about effect. Alcohol causes around 178,000 deaths a year in the US, fentanyl 73,000 and heroin, 4,000. And, heroin and particularly alcohol negatively affect the quality of life of many more people. But you get my point. By far, the worst drug in terms of effect on lives is alcohol, and there is no war on alcohol. There was once, and it was lost. Alcohol is accepted and promoted. When it comes to alcohol, everyone is libertarian - live and let live and you are responsible for your actions.
Drink responsibly.
Paraphrasing Stalin, a single death is a tragedy; 178,000 deaths is a statistic.
We can lose the equivalent of a whole Spokane, Washington, every year to alcohol without blinking an eye.
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The answer is actually fairly pedestrian.
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We draw lines based as much on emotion as on reality.
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Why is cigarette smoking legal at all? The costs in terms of lives and medical expenses are rationally totally unacceptable. Even now, smoking is responsible for some 480,000 deaths a year in the US.
Even more to the point of this article, now that it is clear what the effects of smoking are, why would anyone decide to smoke?
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In the end, the war on drugs was principally a war on marijuana and as marijuana became increasingly socially acceptable, the war on drugs faded and it was lost. If you really want to see a lost war on drugs, go to certain blocks in any big city and look at the hundreds of the perpetually wasted.
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Humans are continually drawing and redrawing lines between the acceptable and the unacceptable, the tolerable and the intolerable, the legal and the illegal. Pendulums swing. As the blight in San Francisco gets worse and worse, even the bleeding-est of hearts begins to understand that things have gone too far.
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While the war on drugs is a distant memory, the war on fentanyl is as intense as any previous skirmish against drugs. A large proportion of those affected are young people and young people dying is one of the most emotionally impactful events for humans. Fentanyl is even a focus of geopolitics.
At the same time, we lose the equivalent of a Miami, Florida, each year to smoking and just move on.
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We cannot win essentially any of these wars. The interesting bit is which ones we choose to fight or abandon, and why.
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Some wars that cannot be won are still worth fighting.
Markets
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> No change in outlook.
> How about my take on two income families and why two incomes are necessary now when only one used to be in the past. Yes, homes are bigger and yes we buy more, but that's because we have two incomes. Econ 101. More money = higher demand = higher prices. Then there's another discussion about all the debt everywhere, saturating our economy. That acts, in the short term, like additional income. So, greater demand for more things at higher prices.
Another Paragraph For My Themes And Theses
One part of this newsletter than you pass by every week is the Themes and Theses bit where I explain my understanding of where the US is heading.
I have just added a paragraph:
(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.
RIP Tom Stoppard
My favorite playwright passed away last week.
I have great memories of the delight of listening to his words and watching his images. Sometimes his words were simply startlingly creative.
The New York Times put it this way, "In works like “Travesties” and “Arcadia,” the playwright embraced the really big questions and wrestled words into coherent, exhilarating shape." I had the same response as my friend, EP, "I’ll never forget seeing Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead. Mid 1970s. I left the theatre thrilled, elated with the ideas and the language."
My favorite play of his, The Real Thing, is, oddly, near the bottom of the critics' lists for him.
I will miss his creations.
The "Somali" Scandal
I'm not going to go into a blow-by-blow, but a group of mostly Somalis in Minnesota defrauded various welfare programs of hundreds of millions of dollars. They are being prosecuted, but only because the Department of Justice stepped in. Walz's Minnesota did not want the awkwardnesses associated with confronting a minority group. So, the scams pretty much happened in public. This contains themes of liberal over-sensitivity, immigrants bringing cultural baggage and non-assimilation. The New York Times did a great piece on this, which I have included at the bottom of this newsletter.
So, You Say You Want A Revolution?
> Last week I discussed how Trump had endorsed an amazingly Russia-favorable proposal to end the Ukraine war. Well, that went nowhere. My view continues to be that Russia will smile and nod and do nothing until it wins. Any change in that view will likely come from internal Russian dynamics, but so far, the natives are only moderately restless. I agree with the authors of the Ukraine blog from the Telegraph when they say, "The scenario I imagine Putin ultimately wants to engineer over the coming years is one in which Nato's Article 5 no longer feels inviolable, and where a growing number of European governments are led by figures more amenable to Moscow – whether out of genuine ideological affinity or a hard-nosed “realpolitik”. He would also prefer a United States that has scaled back its presence on the continent as it shifts its strategic focus toward the Pacific.
Another essential part of this envisioned landscape is a Europe in which the countries most anxious about potential Russian aggression – whether conventional or hybrid – become increasingly inward-looking, prioritising their own security over the collective. We’re already seeing shades of this in the reactions to the recent drone incursions, with some states emphasising their own defences at Ukraine’s expense. Meanwhile, those nations that feel less immediately threatened may grow complacent, thinking less and less about defence at all.
Worryingly, the pieces of this puzzle – once unthinkable in the early months of the war – now seem to be drifting into place. And taken together, they arguably make a future escalation of conflict with Russia more, not less, likely."
> Trump says he is going to reverse Biden's executive orders signed with an autopen.
> This could get gnarly since reports are that Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson’s appointment was signed by an autopen.
> Trump keeps wanting to make the White House ballroom bigger.
> I'm not sure I have ever used the word, appalling, but this is appalling - The Washington Post reported on Friday, citing two unnamed people “with direct knowledge of the operation,” that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had given a military order “to kill everybody” aboard the suspected drug-trafficking boat targeted by the first of the U.S. military’s strikes in the Caribbean against what it described as narcoterrorism. Following the September strike, intelligence officials viewed two survivors holding onto the ship’s wreckage, and the Special Operations commander overseeing the operation reportedly ordered a second lethal strike to comply with Hegseth’s orders.
> Speaking of Trump's war on drugs - Trump issued a pardon for former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who was handed a 45-year sentence last year for crimes including abetting the illegal entry of cocaine into the U.S. for profit.
> Just when you thought things were ramped up to 11, we go to 12 - from X
"Secretary Kristi Noem
I just met with the President. I am recommending a full travel ban on every damn country that's been flooding our nation with killers, leeches, and entitlement junkies. Our forefathers built this nation on blood, sweat, and the unyielding love of freedom—not for foreign invaders to slaughter our heroes, suck dry our hard-earned tax dollars, or snatch the benefits owed to AMERICANS. WE DON'T WANT THEM. NOT ONE. - Trump then paused immigration applications from 19 countries."
> President Donald Trump went on a bizarre Truth Social posting binge Monday night ...CNN political reporter Aaron Blake posted one of the president's unhinged posts, noting, "Trump last night promoted a post that guaranteed Barack Obama will face a military tribunal." ...
"Trump demanded that Republicans abolish the filibuster based on what Holder was telling me," Meiselas writes in a Tuesday morning article titled, "Trump Attacks MeidasTouch in Midnight Mental Breakdown."
"Shortly after Trump made the post about MeidasTouch, there was a brief pause, and then he began making new posts every 10 seconds for a full hour, totaling about 400 posts," Meiselas explains.
"His posts included deranged claims that Michelle Obama 'controlled Biden’s autopen' and that Biden’s executive orders were really done by Michelle Obama. Trump posted an AI video claiming Nicolás Maduro surrendered to him and that Trump was now controlling Venezuela, and that Maduro admitted Tren de Aragua confessed [former President Joe] Biden was the leader of their cartel. Trump made posts saying Canada was involved in election rigging. He made bizarre posts about Obama’s weekly 'kill list.' I can go on and on, but you get the point," he adds.
> The Trump administration wants its “no taxes on tips” rule to exclude money made from pornographic activity. It may soon fall to the I.R.S. to decide what constitutes porn. Thousands of Only Fans accounts await the decision.
​> You never know, but my base case is that the whole Venezuela thing is a bluff. Here's the problem. If the other side does not fold on your first bet in a bluff, you have to make a bigger bet. This goes on until you either go all in or fold. All in on a bluff is a bad idea, but in some cases is what it takes to make the bluff work. Folding is fine, but lets everyone know you bluff and they will be more willing to call future bets, whether bluffs or not. So far, Maduro is running scared, but has not folded. That puts Trump in a very awkward situation. (I view the boat strikes as tragic muscle flexing and part of the overall bluff.)
As I discussed several months ago, my basic assumption is that Trump is bluffing all of the time in these international gambits. The one exception that shocked the hell out of me was the bombing of Iran. If I am thinking that, lots of other people are, also. The man habitually bluffs, but, you know, he did bomb Iran.
> The Supreme Court approved Texas' redrawn election districts.
Short Takes
> No hurricanes hit the US in 2025.
> India’s government sent a notice to private companies last week giving them 90 days to ensure that a government app was “preinstalled on all mobile handsets manufactured or imported for use in India.”
> Chile passed a new law banning phones and other electronic devices from elementary and middle school classrooms, effective next year. This is becoming a trend in South America.
> These poor people are in hell - there is no telling how long, if ever, they will be allowed to rebuild - On the Friday before Thanksgiving, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass announced 'a major milestone' in the recovery from January's wildfires that razed 13,000 homes across the region: A four-bedroom house in Pacific Palisades had received its final approval from the city, making it the first house to be rebuilt after the fires.
> As there will not be enough grandchildren to inherit real estate in Italy and Spain, it will simply flood the market. A similar picture in Poland, with an honorable mention for South Korea.
> In the US, the loss of illegal aliens is beginning to take pressure off of rental housing.
> Porsche just bricked thousands of Russian-registered and internet-connected vehicles overnight. Engines dead. Electronics locked out. No warning. Speculation is that the German automaker acted on EU orders. Porsche isn’t denying it. (Kit) This is mildly amusing until you begin to think how many things you could be locked out of if you got on the wrong side of government. I could not confirm this from another source.
> Appropriate reactions are, "aw," and "aren't they cute," but these are the leaders of our country and companies in another 10-20 years. From The Telegraph
"Gen Z – that is, those currently aged between 13 and 28 – are the future of our country. So I for one am sick of seeing them be cruelly dismissed as precious, whiny, neurotic snowflakes.
Unfortunately, however, there’s a problem. Which is that, to go by a new poll of Gen Z themselves, these mean-spirited stereotypes are actually true. The poll, conducted by Trinity College London, an education charity, asked more than 1,500 members of Gen Z for their thoughts about office life. And the results were startling.
Apparently, the following things cause today’s young workers anxiety: “Having to accept criticism” (cited by 22 per cent); “Having to be on time” (28 per cent); “Having to use the phone” (30 per cent); and “Having to make small talk” (38 per cent).
The single greatest “source of anxiety”, however, was cited by no less than 42 per cent of Gen Z. And it was, quite simply: “Working with people”. As opposed, presumably, to working with kittens, or Labubu dolls."
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> Shots fired. The EU has fined X $140 million for not enforcing its censorship standards. This one could turn out to be very big because the EU is basically censoring the internet.
Remember the Uyghurs? I'm Sure They're Doing Fine, Now
Gallery
How do different classes in England say "Fucking idiot?"


Miscellany
Nothing this week.
How Fraud Swamped Minnesota’s Social Services System on Tim Walz’s Watch
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Prosecutors say members of the Somali diaspora, a group with growing political power, were largely responsible. President Trump has drawn national attention to the scandal amid his crackdown on immigration.
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Reporting from Minneapolis
Published Nov. 29, 2025
Updated Nov. 30, 2025
The fraud scandal that rattled Minnesota was staggering in its scale and brazenness.
Federal prosecutors charged dozens of people with felonies, accusing them of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from a government program meant to keep children fed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
At first, many in the state saw the case as a one-off abuse during a health emergency. But as new schemes targeting the state’s generous safety net programs came to light, state and federal officials began to grapple with a jarring reality.
Over the last five years, law enforcement officials say, fraud took root in pockets of Minnesota’s Somali diaspora as scores of individuals made small fortunes by setting up companies that billed state agencies for millions of dollars’ worth of social services that were never provided.
Federal prosecutors say that 59 people have been convicted in those schemes so far, and that more than $1 billion in taxpayers’ money has been stolen in three plots they are investigating. That is more than Minnesota spends annually to run its Department of Corrections. Minnesota’s fraud scandal stood out even in the context of rampant theft during the pandemic, when Americans stole tens of billions through unemployment benefits, business loans and other forms of aid, according to federal auditors.
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Outrage has swelled among Minnesotans, and fraud has turned into a potent political issue in a competitive campaign season. Gov. Tim Walz and fellow Democrats are being asked to explain how so much money was stolen on their watch, providing Republicans, who hope to take back the governor’s office in 2026, with a powerful line of attack.
In recent days, President Trump has weighed in, calling Minnesota “a hub of fraudulent money laundering activity” and saying that Somali perpetrators should be sent “back to where they came from.”
Many Somali Americans in Minnesota say the fraud has damaged the reputation of their entire community, around 80,000 people, at a moment when their political and economic standing was on the rise.
Debate over the fraud has opened new rifts between the state’s Somali community and other Minnesotans, and has left some Somali Americans saying they are unfairly facing a new layer of suspicion against all of them, rather than the small group accused of fraud. Critics of the Walz administration say that the fraud persisted partly because state officials were fearful of alienating the Somali community in Minnesota. Governor Walz, who has instituted new fraud-prevention safeguards, defended his administration’s actions.
The episode has raised broader questions for some residents about the sustainability of Minnesota’s Scandinavian-modeled system of robust safety net programs bankrolled by high taxes. That system helped create an environment that drew immigrants to the state over many decades, including tens of thousands of Somali refugees after their country descended into civil war in the 1990s.
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“No one will support these programs if they continue to be riddled with fraud,” Joseph H. Thompson, the federal prosecutor who has overseen the fraud cases said in an interview. “We’re losing our way of life in Minnesota in a very real way.”
Surge of Cases
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Minneapolis is home to one of the largest Somali-American communities in the United States.Credit...Ben Brewer for The New York Times
The first public sign of a major problem in the state’s social services system came in 2022, when federal prosecutors began charging defendants in connection to a program aimed at feeding hungry children. Merrick B. Garland, attorney general during the Biden administration, called it the country’s largest pandemic relief fraud scheme.
The prosecutors focused on a Minneapolis nonprofit organization called Feeding Our Future, which became a partner to dozens of local businesses that enrolled as feeding sites.
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State agencies reimbursed the group and its partners for invoices claiming to have fed tens of thousands of children. In reality, federal prosecutors said, most of the meals were nonexistent, and business owners spent the funds on luxury cars, houses and even real estate projects abroad.
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Behind the scenes, as federal investigators sifted through bank records and interviewed witnesses, they said they realized that the meals fraud was not an isolated incident. In September, prosecutors charged nine people in two new plots tied to public funds meant for those in need.
In one case, hundreds of providers were reimbursed for assistance they claimed to have provided to people at risk for homelessness, though federal authorities said services weren’t provided.
The program’s annual cost ballooned to more than $104 million last year, the authorities said, from a budgeted projection of $2.6 million when it began in 2020. Two of eight people charged in the scenario have pleaded guilty; six others have pleaded not guilty and are awaiting trial.
In another program, aimed to provide therapy for autistic children, prosecutors said providers recruited children in Minneapolis’s Somali community, falsely certifying them as qualifying for autism treatment and paying their parents kickbacks for their cooperation.
Prosecutors have so far charged one provider, Asha Farhan Hassan, 29, with wire fraud. They say she and business partners stole $14 million.
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Ryan Pacyga, Ms. Hassan’s lawyer, said his client had entered the social services field with good intentions, but eventually began to submit fraudulent invoices. He said she intends to plead guilty.
Ms. Hassan is of Somali ancestry, as are all but eight of the 86 people charged in the meals, housing and autism therapy fraud cases, according to prosecutors. A vast majority are American citizens, by birth or naturalization.
Mr. Pacyga, who also has represented other defendants in the fraud cases, said that some involved became convinced that state agencies were tolerating, if not tacitly allowing, the fraud.
“No one was doing anything about the red flags,” he said. “It was like someone was stealing money from the cookie jar and they kept refilling it.”
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‘A Core Voting Bloc’
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Whiteboards filled with cases and charges line the walls inside a room used by investigators to track fraud.Credit...Ben Brewer for The New York Times
Red flags in the meals program surfaced in the early months of the pandemic, but the money kept flowing.
In 2020, Minnesota Department of Education officials who administered the program became overwhelmed by the number of applicants seeking to register new feeding sites and began raising questions about the plausibility of some invoices.
Feeding Our Future, the nonprofit group that was the largest provider in the pandemic program, responded with a warning. In an email, the group told the state agency that failing to promptly approve new applicants from “minority-owned businesses” would result in a lawsuit featuring accusations of racism that would be “sprawled across the news.”
Feeding Our Future later sued the agency, which continued reimbursing claims and approving new sites in the months that followed.
A report by Minnesota’s nonpartisan Office of the Legislative Auditor about the lapses that enabled the meals fraud later found that the threat of litigation and of negative press affected how state officials used their regulatory power.
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Kayseh Magan, a Somali American who formerly worked as a fraud investigator for the Minnesota attorney general’s office, said elected officials in the state — and particularly those who were part of the state’s Democratic-led administration — were reluctant to take more assertive action in response to allegations in the Somali community.
“There is a perception that forcefully tackling this issue might cause political backlash among the Somali community, which is a core voting bloc” for Democrats, said Mr. Magan, who is among the few prominent figures in the Somali community to speak about the fraud.
As a trial in the meals fraud case was coming to a close last summer, an attempt to bribe a juror included an explicit insinuation about racism, prosecutors said. Several defendants in the trial were found to have arranged to send a bag containing $120,000 to a juror along with a note that read, “Why, why, why is it always people of color and immigrants prosecuted for the fault of other people?”
Mr. Thompson, a career prosecutor who served as interim U.S. attorney for several months this year, and who declined to discuss his own political preferences, said he believed that race sensitivities had played a major role in the rise of fraud. As pandemic assistance was disbursed, the state was also reeling from the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer in May 2020, he said.
“This was a huge part of the problem,” Mr. Thompson said during an interview in the summer. “Allegations of racism can be a reputation or career killer.”
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Mr. Walz, Minnesota’s second-term governor who gained national attention last year as Kamala Harris’s running mate in a White House bid, said this week that claims of racism did not hinder his administration’s response to fraud.
Mr. Walz has said that his administration may have erred on the side of generosity during the pandemic as the state pushed out large sums of money quickly, seeking to keep Minnesotans housed, fed and healthy.
“The programs are set up to move the money to people,” Mr. Walz said in an interview. “The programs are set up to improve people’s lives, and in many cases, the criminals find the loopholes.”
Mr. Walz, who is seeking a third term next year, has created a new task force to pursue fraud cases; made it easier for state agencies to share information with one another; and announced plans for new technology, including artificial intelligence tools, to spot suspicious billing practices.
“The message here in Minnesota,” Mr. Walz said, “is if you commit a crime, if you commit fraud against public dollars, you are going to go to prison.”
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Fraud has already become a central issue in a competitive governor’s race. Lisa Demuth, a Republican and current Minnesota House speaker, accused the governor of raising taxes while letting “fraud run wild” in a video announcing her bid to replace Mr. Walz.
In recent months Mr. Walz’s administration began shutting down the housing program altogether, acknowledging that it was riddled with fraud. Last month the state hired an independent auditor to review claims for 14 other Medicaid-funded programs that the state said were at high risk of fraud.
“Greedy people and businesses have learned how to exploit our programs,” James Clark, the inspector general at the Department of Human Services, told lawmakers during a recent hearing. “Fraud is the business model.”
The Fallout
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Ahmed Samatar, a professor at Macalester College, said a reckoning over the fraud and its consequences for Minnesota was overdue.Credit...Ben Brewer for The New York Times
Years after the fraud cases first came to light, the issue has come under a harsh national spotlight amid the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.
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Mr. Trump last week denounced the Minnesota fraud cases on social media and simultaneously announced an end to a temporary legal status that allows several hundred Somali immigrants to live and work in the United States.
His comments followed a report this month in the Manhattan Institute’s publication, City Journal, in which Ryan Thorpe, a reporter, and Christopher Rufo, a conservative activist,said that money from Minnesota’s fraud was funding Al Shabab, a terrorist organization in Somalia. That claim emerged in 2018, but there has been no solid evidence to substantiate it, and none of the federal fraud cases have featured a link to terrorism.
Over the last few days, in response to the shooting of National Guard members in Washington, Mr. Trump has again spoken of Somalis in Minnesota, saying they were “ripping off our country.”
In Minnesota, Mr. Trump’s remarks deeply unsettled Somalis.
Dozens came to a Somali mall in Minneapolis over the weekend for a potluck and interfaith gathering, where faith leaders decried Mr. Trump's statements. And in a news conference on Monday, Democratic elected officials pointed to contributions Somali leaders have made to Minnesota’s political, economic and cultural spheres. Several Somali Americans serve in the State Legislature and other offices, while others have been honored for their entrepreneurship.
“We do not blame the lawlessness of an individual on a whole community,” Representative Ilhan Omar, a Democrat who was born in Somalia and whose district includes Minneapolis, told reporters.
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Somali residents were initially concentrated in a neighborhood near downtown Minneapolis with high-rises and Somali-run restaurants and shops, but over the years many have moved to the suburbs and elsewhere in the state.
Their experiences have been challenging at times as many in the community contended with poverty, unemployment and language barriers. In recent years, some Somali Americans say the community has been broadly blamed over crime and links to terrorist groups. Few episodes have left fissures as deep as the fraud scandal.
Ahmed Samatar, a professor at Macalester College who is a leading expert in Somali studies, said a reckoning over the fraud and its consequences for Minnesota was overdue.
“American society and the denizens of the state of Minnesota have been extremely good to Somalis,” said Dr. Samatar, who is Somali American.
Dr. Samatar said that Somali refugees who came to the United States after their country’s civil war were raised in a culture in which stealing from the country’s dysfunctional and corrupt government was widespread.
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Minnesota, he said, proved susceptible to rampant fraud because it is “so tolerant, so open and so geared toward keeping an eye on the weak.”
Others in the community have criticized steps state agencies have taken to tighten oversight of programs. The Minnesota Somali Community Center, a nonprofit organization that provides resources to Somalis, recently issued a statement saying that many social services providers were now at risk of closure and feeling “criminalized and intentionally targeted.”
Still, other Somali Americans who have nothing to do with social service agencies said they had come to feel under siege amid all the fraud allegations and political accusations.
“The actions of a small group have made it easier for people already inclined to reject us to double down,” said Abdi Mohamed, a filmmaker in Minneapolis. “The broader Somali community — hardworking, family-oriented, deeply committed to Minnesota — is left carrying that burden.”
Ernesto Londoño is a Times reporter based in Minnesota, covering news in the Midwest and drug use and counternarcotics policy.