Still not clear what is going on, so I will speculate.

The history of war is replete with wars that would be quickly won - famously that World War I would be over by Christmas. Or that Putin would march into Kyiv. Everybody overestimates themselves, underestimates the enemy, does not understand that shit happens, and discounts the willingness of people to sacrifice to defend their homeland - and then there is incompetence and poor judgement.

I, for one, really, really, really hope that it is not Trump and Hegseth that are calling the shots. That would be the worst combination since Lincoln and McClellan.

My simplistic view is that Trump thought that some bombing and decapitation would do it and we could Venezuela Iran.

It is unfortunate that Venezuela went as well as it did, because Trump decided to make it a template.

He was wrong and here we are.

As Ian Bremmer puts it, "This is shaping up to be the biggest foreign policy blunder of either of Trump's presidencies."

The thing about Trump is that when he is wrong, he can destroy, or at least upend, the entire world. His ill-conceived initial tariffs almost did that and here we are again. Oil is literally the world's life blood and its supply is now threatened.

The world has not seen so many black swans circling overhead at the same time in many decades.

None has landed, yet, and there remains hope that none will - but it is a whole, damn flock and they are up there.

It looks like Trump is trying to find some way out, so this may be over soon.

Or maybe he is stuck and Iran won't let him out - for now, that appears to be the case. They are going to get their pound of flesh.

Luke Gromen makes that argument as follows - "If someone repeatedly told you the plan is to wipe you and everyone you know out, and then killed your wife and father and child, and now you have managed to grab them by the jugular that is Hormuz, would you let them go so they can re-arm, or would you take them down with you?"

Recession is not now but soon may be the way to bet.

A ceasefire with things pretty much the way they were before the war, but with a lot of Iran bombed and a lot of people killed is not now but soon may be the way to bet.

Trump losing the Senate this year is not now but may soon be the way to bet.

Bret Stephens of the New York Times makes the counter argument - "I’m flabbergasted by the relentless pessimism I’m seeing in much of the commentariat. We are less than two weeks into a war that will almost surely be over by the end of the month, and already there are predictions that it’s “another Iraq.” American casualties, heartbreaking as they are, have been minor for a conflict of this scale. Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors diminishes by the day: We’ve seen this in the sharp decline in its ballistic missile and drone attacks. I have to assume that before this war is over, we will find a way to remove Iran’s remaining stores of highly enriched uranium, which greatly enhances global security over the long term. And Iran’s leaders, for all their swagger, now know they are not immune from reprisal, which will make them think a lot more carefully as they plot their retaliation. We may not see regime change now, but this regime is likely to become a zombie state before the next, all-but-inevitable, popular uprising."

Nothing to do but wait and see.

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> If you want to scare the hell out of yourself, read this.

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> Our leaders have a firm grasp of the situation - In his press conference today, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, “The only thing prohibiting transit in the Straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit, should Iran not do that.”

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​> Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Not good.

 

> Guardian headline illustrates the missile supply problem - Hasty redeployment of US missiles from South Korea to Middle East leaves Seoul rattled.

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> Maybe the mother of all ironies - Trump is taking some sanctions off of Russian oil in order to increase supply in an attempt to support countries that are running out and to try to keep prices down as much as possible.

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> From X, last weekend - A few more days of Israel and the US attack on Iran and expect oil and/ or gas rationing in multiple Asian countries

1 Pakistan: In crisis. 0 to 5 days of reserves. Already considering mandatory WFH and weekly price hikes. With only 25 days of petrol, rationing is imminent

2 Bangladesh: In crisis. With 14 to 15 days of diesel, the government is already prioritizing power plants over transport to avoid a total blackout

3 Thailand: Market stressed. Already banned petroleum exports to protect its 60-day buffer. Voluntary rationing likely within a week

4 Singapore: Market stressed. As a hub, it feels the squeeze early. Bunker fuel is already being restricted to existing contracts only

5 India: Vulnerable. While holding ~74 days total, its physical "strategic" caverns are small. Rationing could start to preserve stocks for the military/farming. Gas cuts to industry of 10 to 30% already implemented

6 Taiwan: Vulnerable. Oil is stable (~120 days of reserves), but Gas (LNG) is critical at 11 days. Power rationing for industry likely to start within days

7 China: Large reserves (~120 days) allow it to "wait and see," but some rationing (eg internal quotas for non-essential travel) could appear within a month. Already halted diesel exports to protect what it has

8 South Korea: Rationing could start if the conflict appears permanent (6+ months)

9 Japan: The most resilient, with a world-leading 254-day oil reserve, but only has 3 weeks of LNG inventories and industry already asking for strategic reserves to be opened

This is on track to be worse than 1973, 53 years ago, and shows, again, how if your energy depends on fossil fuels you aren’t sovereign; you’re a hostage.

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> Bomb throwing in Manhattan by some Middle Easterners - the bombs did not go off.

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> Much discussion in the media about how Israel's and the US's goals are diverging. 

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> Several companies opening their strategic petroleum reserves to help keep down oil prices.

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> Iran’s counterattacks have slowed down. Either its arsenal is depleted or it is holding weapons in reserve.

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> China has formally expressed its ire with Iran's attacking the Gulf States. This might help dial Iran back.

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> Interesting wrinkle - you know all those desalination plants on the Persian Gulf? Well, sink a tanker and the oil spill starts gumming up the works.

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> I just listened to interesting conspiracy theories from sources I have found reliable in the past, who do not usually deal in conspiracy theories, that are pointing out how the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz is to the US's long term benefit. I don't buy it, yet, but they are interesting. This is the 3D chess interpretation of history.

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> Talked to an Indian friend living in Dubai yesterday. He says it is interesting how you get used to missiles flying overhead. Everyone is staying home - working remotely if they can. Neither of us wanted to get into it, but I felt awkward being a resident of a democratic nation that is responsible for an imperialist war. I feel not so much dirty as dishonorable - ok, maybe a little dirty, too.

And, then I got introspective.

I was too young to have an opinion about Korea.

I supported the Vietnam War initially and then quickly changed my views. The premise was questionable, but the execution was irresponsible. The answer to the question, when was I radicalized, is, never. But the Vietnam War was the beginning of my extreme cynicism about the government. I was young and learning about the world. I grew up with Eisenhour and Kennedy, who seemed to be (but Kennedy was responsible for the early days of the Vietnam War) good guys. I thought the government actually acted in the best interests of the country. This is when I learned that it was more complicated than that - that money, power and stupidity were the more powerful forces in government.

The first Iraq War was ok - helping out the little guy and protecting critical oil supplies. I felt good.

I initially kinda supported the second Iraq War. One of those - not sure it makes sense, but they know something I don't know - kind of things. I let my cynicism guard down. It became increasingly obvious to me that if we were going to rebuild in Iraq, we should be careful what we blew up. And, if they knew something I didn't know, they were wrong. I went from sanguine to credulous to outraged to sad.

The Afghanistan War was always - to me, obviously from the beginning - unwinnable. As an effort to cripple terrorists, it initially seemed ok. The longer it went on, the stupider it was. Biden's withdrawal was simply awful - rinkydink amateur hour. I was amazed at the stupidity and embarrassed for my country.

So, during the Vietnam War, I was sanguine, angry and outraged. First Iraq War - all seemed well. Second Iraq War, sanguine to credulous to outraged to sad. Afghanistan - supportive then indignant and embarrassed. Iran - dishonorable and dirty.

That's not a good record.

We are a warlike nation that doesn't do war particularly well.