Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Kit Webster
Themes and Theses
Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud
(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)
The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.
The crisis will be serious and could be existential.
Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.
International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.
There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.
Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.
Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.
Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.
Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.
There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.
(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.
(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.
(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.
(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.
(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.
(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.
Nothing New This Week
September 25, 2026
Quotes to Contemplate
There are two ways to be deceived. One is to believe a lie; the other is to be unwilling to believe the truth. - Søren Kierkegaard
One of the great things god does is that he keeps people who do not have kids from knowing what they are missing. - Warren Beatty
The fact that people still care about 25 basis points is evidence that they don’t yet appreciate the depth of the fiscal dominance we are in. - Lyn Alden
Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue
Russia continues to threaten to broaden the Ukraine war.
The use of atomic weapons in Iran and Ukraine is not off the table.
An energy crisis has begun.
A food crisis is on its way.
Nothing New This Week
Debt and deficits increase.
No entitlement reform.
Interest rates increase.
Russia is threatening expansion of the Ukraine War.
The US is caught in a stalemate in Iran, hoping that the blockade will break Iran before the world economy deteriorates too far.
The prices of gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel and aviation fuel continue to increase due to destruction of refinery capability - we are in the very early stage of a crisis.
A food crisis is coming.
The Democrats will take the House and perhaps the Senate. The volume of rhetoric will increase dramatically, with many committees and investigations. Trump will continue to rule by executive order and be controlled by the courts.
Faith in America's underlying philosophy and institutions is eroding - socialism, as a proxy for, not-the-status-quo, is increasing.
AI continues to increase in capabilities.
We continue to evolve to a world order where the US is not at the center.
We continue to not replace ourselves - demographics are deteriorating.
Education and healthcare are in crisis.
All of these are symptoms of the decline into my predicted crisis.
Any good news?
A dramatic decrease in murder and violent crime.
A dramatic decrease in overdose deaths.
The economy, while very exposed to shocks, is, on the whole, doing quite well.
So, You Say You Want A Revolution?
> Evidently, every country in Europe is convinced that Russia is going to expand the Ukraine war, and those on Russia's border are making preparations.
> The United States has entered a security agreement with Greenland and Denmark that gives America a bigger say in the Arctic territory’s affairs and expands its military presence in the country. The agreement would allow the US to expand its military presence, while Denmark and Greenland say it preserves their sovereignty and right to self-determination.
> President Trump declares at the UN General Assembly that Artificial Intelligence is now officially known as "Super Intelligence."
> Pausing - both ChatGPT and Anthropic released new, upgraded models this past week.
> Looking forward to the announcements following Xi's meetings with Trump this week. Rumors have it that Xi is pushing on Taiwan.
> Nailed it -
>
Election Interpretation - Term Limits and Gerrymandering
I've been talking about planks in election platforms that are emotionally driven or irrelevant, but high on politicians' lists.
Today's topics - term limits and gerrymandering
There is an old joke about nuclear fusion power - it's 20 years away and always will be.
That's where we are on term limits and gerrymandering - two things that are worthy of debate, but will never go away. Regardless of what they say, the people in power simply benefit from them too much.
So, Republicans and Democrats will virtue signal continually about both. It is kinda required, like wearing an American flag pin on their lapels and saying, "God bless the USA." All symbolism.
And nothing will be done.
(The remainder of this article has been presented in previous editions of this newsletter and is reproduced at the bottom of this edition.)
The Market
No change - minor retracement and then continuing bull market.
As an oversimplification, we have reached the point where interest rates are going higher, but, if they do, the world breaks, along with the US economy. Something has to change, so look for imaginative, drastic actions, primarily by the Treasury.
The wild ride just gets wilder.
The Iran War
> Always look on the bright side of life - Iran and the Houthis are helping the world meet its carbon goals.
> Trump calls for a total ban on US diesel exports. That won't work because we make more diesel than we need and the extra has to go somewhere. Look for something more nuanced.
The Atomic Bomb Problem
As we have discussed, you do not want nuclear powers to either be cornered or run out of options. That's when they consider using nuclear weapons.
The US has run out of practical options in Iran. It can invade, but that would turn into a major, unpopular operation. The US's only hope is that he blockade grinds Iran down to the point it has to give in. Of course, Iran is betting it can grind down the US and its allies through shortages and price increases.
Or, the US could go nuclear. Probably a small, tactical weapon as a warning, but a ginormous change in convention and the status quo.
I think Trump would do it.
I'm not sure the military would follow his command - opening yet another Pandora's box, including the (very small) probability of a coup.
Maybe I'm underestimating the problem, but I give it a 20% probability on my optimistic days and a 40% probability on my pessimistic days.
As for Russia and Ukraine, the Russian election is over and everyone is awaiting Putin's next move. There is growing unrest at home, although nothing serious, yet; Ukraine is droning his infrastructure; and Russians are dying by the hundreds and thousands.
Another stalemate.
Another leader who would be willing to use nuclear weapons.
But I give it the same probability as with Iran.
The whole world changes when he does that, and in particular he would likely lose China's support.
Discussions about Israel using nuclear weapons come up from time to time.
As long as their existence is not threatened, I do not think they would do that.
Threaten their existence, and I do think they would do that.
Short Takes
> Montreal city council passes bylaw banning insults, harassment, and “offensive” behaviour toward police & city workers.
> Prediction - AI is close to being good enough. Most users do not need all the power and features. Within a year, people will be switching to local models, including on a piece of the cloud they own. Power users will still need Claude and ChatGPT.
Swiping Right
I asked AI to describe racial preferences in dating from dating sites. Here's the result. (No axe to grind, just interested in the question.)
Data from major dating platforms and studies (such as OKCupid and the app Are You Interested) show distinct patterns in racial and ethnic preferences among participants.
Key Findings and Response Rates
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Overall Response Winners: Analysis of millions of interactions on platforms like Quartz indicates that White men and Asian women generally receive the highest response rates and interest across multiple demographics.
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Overall Response Challenges: Black women and Black men consistently experience the lowest overall response rates and message replies across several major dating platforms.
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General Preferences by Gender:
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Most women (with the notable exception of Black women) show the highest stated or revealed preference for White men.
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Most men (with the exception of Asian men in some datasets) display a high level of preference for Asian women.
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In-Group vs. Out-Group Discrepancies: Studies analyzing messaging behavior note that stated preferences do not always match actions. For example, research utilizing data from platforms like Yahoo Personals and Tinder demonstrates that users often gravitate heavily toward White profiles or same-race profiles even when claiming no specific racial preference exists.
Gallery
Miscellaneous
Election Issues Summary
Maybe you are seeing a trend here. A lot of emotional arguments by candidates that, as a practical matter, cannot go anywhere. People are upset, so candidates promise they can do something about whatever is upsetting you, when they actually cannot do much.
Not only can these problems not be solved, they are, imo, the wrong problems in the first place.
What do I think the most important issues facing the US are? What should we actually be talking about?
1. Debt and deficits - there is a severe decrease in living standards in our future. This is the inflation problem, but no one is discussing it in these terms.
2. AI's impact - it is probably both inevitable and life-changing. We need to begin to figure out what that means.
3. The shared premise that election results, court rulings, and the neutrality of enforcement are binding on the losing side. Both coalitions currently believe, sincerely, that key institutions have been captured by the other — which is exactly the condition under which legitimacy erodes fastest, because each side's defensive measures confirm the other's suspicion.
4. Demographics and immigration - getting control of the borders was important, but now we have to create a viable immigration system. Primary points of discussion include that we are not replacing ourselves and we need skilled and knowledge workers.
5. Healthcare - our system is expensive and dysfunctional. We literally need to tear it up and create a new one. "Medicare for all" is not only a bad idea, it is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. There are no other ideas on the table.
6. Redefining our role in the world. We cannot afford to rule the world. The world will become an increasingly unstable place once the US begins withdrawing. And it will fracture into power zones. It is not clear where the US will end up over the next 5-10 years when the first iteration of this change will take place. This process will likely encompass one or more wars of varying magnitudes.
Social media, crime, drugs, loneliness, climate change etc., are important, but don't make the top 6. Also on that second list is the dysfunction of parts of the black community. We are wasting a lot of lives and generating a lot of crime, but not as fundamental as the top 6. Another of my hobby horses - the incompatibility of Western values and fundamentalist Islam - is just now beginning to pop up in the US. Far from important now, but the world may look different in 5-10 years.
People running for Congress are doing so on unrealistic, all-but-irrelevant platforms at a time when Congress is not doing much of anything, anyway.
In the meantime, the beginning of the end of my predicted end game has officially begun.
"There is a tide in the affairs of men" and we are now caught in it and have lost most of our ability to do anything but go with it.
Scorecard so far - political position vs. the real world:
Doing away with the Electoral College - all but impossible.
Doing away with the Senate - all but impossible.
Packing the Supreme Court - doable with control of both Houses and the Presidency and elimination of the filibuster.
DC and Puerto Rico statehoods - Huh?
Doing away with inflation - our economy will have disinflationary and maybe deflationary periods, but the inevitable end game for our debt and deficits includes higher inflation and a lower dollar. In general, allowing for volatility, inflation is inevitable. Look for typical, self-defeating, political tactics like rent and price controls to make everyone feel better as pressures increase and foundations rot.
Medicare for all - highly unlikely and, if implemented, a total shock to the system as severe rationing of health care sets in. Our healthcare system badly needs significant reform, but this is a very, very big, complicated problem.
Taking down prisons - kinda fringy, some justification in the sense of reforming prisons. Overall, bad idea. Expensive and resource intensive.
Shut down ICE - Fundamentally changing immigration law is up to Congress. You can throw actual ICE overboard, but someone will have to take up the slack. Practically, the call to shut down ICE is an emotional response to real events and not a viable platform. Meaningful reform of immigration will take a lot of work, however, the process can be much better managed.
Climate change, in spite of being a valid concern, is falling off the election-subject-matter map.
Gun control - going nowhere anytime soon.
Insider stock trading by Congress and the President - common knowledge corruption; voters do not like it. Any useful bill is unlikely to be passed. But candidates can virtue signal at will.
Term limits and gerrymandering are on the laundry list of pro forma-but-required virtue signals that will go nowhere.