Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Kit Webster
Themes and Theses
Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud
(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)
The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.
The crisis will be serious and could be existential.
Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.
International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.
There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.
Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.
Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.
Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.
Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.
There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.
(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.
(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.
(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.
(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.
(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.
(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.
Curiouser and Curiouser
June 26, 2026
Quotes to Contemplate
None this week
Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue
The Iran situation will continue to be very volatile. Sooner or later, they will begin to deal with the uranium issues and the Strait will be tolled.
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The need for age checking on the internet is clear to me. However, it will have profound unintended consequences for privacy and security.
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The move leftward in politics is real, and includes some pretty strange people. Opposition will arise from both Democrats and Republicans. Interesting times.
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Sex, drugs and rock and roll win every time.
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So, You Say You Want A Revolution?
> I'm in agreement - Ukraine is winning for now - from X -
"A lot has changed in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Let's sum it up:
1. Europe has replaced the US in finances & arms deliveries. Ukraine's financial situation is better than Russia's. Ukraine has better arms than Russia.
2. Ukraine has got rid of harmful US military advice & restrictions.
3. Ukraine is now shooting more drones than Russia & it has bombed both Moscow & St. Petersburg. The Russian elite is finally feeling the war.
4. Ukraine is gradually cutting off the supply lies to Crimea & many Russians leave Crimea.
5. Ukraine has managed to cause a petroleum shortage in large parts of Russia, which Russians feel.
6. While territory is no longer key, Ukraine has gained territory the last few months.
7. Many more public manifestations of opposition in Russian videos.
8. Europe is more united behind Ukraine than ever after Orban's demise.
Conclusions: Ukraine is winning, but slowly. The Ukrainians know what they are doing. Maintain full European support & keep Trump out!"
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> It's really difficult to tell who is the socialist these days - JD Vance endorses using a “sovereign wealth fund” to take U.S. stakes in major AI companies.
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> It was inevitable that age checking on the internet would lead to the regulation of VPNs and, yet another, loss of privacy and security. - Utah is the first state to enact a limited VPN ban to enforce its age-check law. Other states could follow suit.
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> Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz told the National Assembly last week that—amid extreme fuel and food shortages, growing popular discontent, and significant pressure from the Trump administration—the country will begin opening up critical economic sectors to foreign investment and start privatizing state companies. A package of 176 measures permits the successive devaluation of the national currency and will see the state relax its grip on industries long considered cornerstones of the revolutionary economy. Cuban officials say they drew inspiration from similar market-oriented reform efforts undertaken by China and Vietnam.
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> South Africa is expelling all of its illegal aliens.
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> Doomberg on fusion - "We begin by reiterating the same position we always convey whenever we’re asked about the so-called energy miracle always just around the corner: The stated purpose of fusion solves problems that don’t exist. The latest fission-reactor designs, which require no new inventions and are already commercially demonstrated, negate the issues fusion advocates have long raised to knock existing options. The new designs have virtually eliminated the risk of meltdowns, and there’s never been such a thing as nuclear waste. Spent fuel rods are little more than future sources of energy, readily recyclable through fast-breeder reactors."
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> Newsweek - "Four years after the U.S. Supreme Court eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, data shows the number of procedures has not fallen as many lawmakers and advocates expected. Instead, it has climbed, and abortions are still happening even in states with the strictest bans."
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> Hunter Biden sent out a tweet with his analysis of Tuesday's election. We are living in stranger and stranger times.
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> James Talarico: "I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity." We are living in stranger and stranger times.
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> Ok, I'm sold. We need Greenland - Trump Official Says US Control of Greenland Could Bring Back All-You-Can-Eat Shrimp at Red Lobster.
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> The Obama Library requires ID for entry on free Tuesdays to establish Illinois residency.
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> The Trump reflecting pool fiasco follows the playbook. Trump wants to put his mark on something. The reflecting pool is a little shabby. Hire a guy without a bidding process. Guy struggles. Pond needs to be redone. Trump is hiring another no-bid contributor.
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> The beat goes on - All three Mamdani-endorsed candidates - a progressive and two democratic socialists - won their primaries against more established Democrats.​​
Here's Jonah Goldberg - "The worst of them is Darializa Avila Chevalier. She is a 32-year-old doctoral student in sociology. I assume she’s going to be ABD for a while (that’s “all but dissertation” for those of you who may not have known as many students-for-life as I have). Avila Chevalier is the kind of caricature-made-flesh that Fox News producers, GOP consultants, and right-wing Leninists dream about. I really don’t mean that as an insult to the producers, consultants, and Leninists, because they have every right to crow. She’s not a strawman. You can quote her directly without fear of being accurately accused of exaggeration. The things she’s said or endorsed on social media would fit perfectly in a Trump rally speech (and spare me the “retweets don’t equal endorsement” retort).
She is for abolishing all prisons, eliminating the police, erasing the border, legalizing prostitution, controlling prices to deal with inflation, and nationalizing vast swaths of the economy, including seizing property from landlords. When repeatedly pressed on the question of whether murderers—lawfully convicted by a jury of their peers—should be sent to jail, she refused to say anything approaching “yes.” Instead, she lamented how prison traumatizes murderers and denies them an opportunity to “reflect” on the harm they caused to their community, which is why she would like to see the murderers returned to that community. You know, to better reflect on stuff.
Of course, she hates Israel with blinding passion (she thinks Bernie Sanders is too Zionist), believing it has no right to exist. When Hamas launched its pogrom of rape and murder, she was one of those people who immediately attended that pro-Hamas rally the next day—while the raping and murdering had not yet abated. But she also thinks America is a “f—ing disgrace.”"
"If you're a conservative you should lament the fact that NYC is sending radicals who will harm the country and the city with their ridiculous ideas. If you're a normal Democrat or liberal, you should lament the fact these leftwing radicals will empower rightwing radicals." Kit - I think this last sentence is an important insight. Antes will be upped everywhere and discussion will become even more shrill, if you can even imagine that. Remember, one of my "laws" is that there is a sociological equivalent to one of Newton's laws of motion - for every action, there is an equal, and opposite, reaction.
The Musk Hysteria
People have lost their minds over this trillion dollar thing.
First thing to understand is that it is stock value and not cash. Imagine you purchased a stock for $100 and it went to $500, how much cash would you have?
Next, everybody is saying really stupid things like (this is a real case from X that I responded to), if you just took 15% of Musk's wealth, you could cure poverty and homelessness. The US spends a little less than 15% of a trillion dollars every month. People just have no idea of size and proportion.
Also, the US is running a $2 trillion annual budget deficit. If for some reason it got its hands on all of Musk's wealth, should it be spent or pay down the debt and deficit?
I get it. A trillion dollars in wealth is obscene. But it has a side effect of making people crazy.
Maybe you will feel better knowing that SpaceX stock has declined, so that, today, Elon is not worth a trillion dollars anymore.
Curiouser and Curiouser
I have listed my various "rules" of how I view human behavior. Following are the five revelations that had the most powerful impact - and most of them are variations on a theme:
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1. I am not normal.
2. Humans are primarily emotional and not rational.
3. In a democracy, you get the government you deserve.
4.. There is one, unique reality per person.
5. Humans take all trends to their extremes.
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I am not normal. What I think and feel has little relation to the way everyone else thinks or feels. In some Platonic or rational way, I may even be right at times, but that is generally irrelevant. To try to understand, I have to perpetually get outside of myself, which is all but impossible.
If people were rational, they would follow rules and laws and understanding would be relatively easy.
Observation and attempting to withhold judgement become critical. Most of the time, once you get the hang of it, it is pretty easy. Sometimes it is impossible.
The OJ Simpson trial, liberals letting Clinton off the hook for Lewinski and Christians letting Trump off the hook for, well, many things, are my poster children.
Rationality does not matter, facts do not matter. (Of course, they matter to some extent, but often are not the primary factors.) Everyone, including the jurors, knew OJ was guilty; everyone, including liberals, knew Clinton overstepped his bounds with Lewinski, and everyone, including Christians, knew that Trump overstepped his bounds often.
It did not matter.
Emotions, grievances and identity were the critical issues - right, wrong and the law be damned. These are the actual, fundamental building blocks of human behavior.
Since there are no firm boundaries, boundaries will be expanded and people will take everything to an extreme. This is a little complicated, but simplistically, humans like new things. Particularly when their basic needs are satisfied, they look for new stimulation. This can be a good thing, as with some technology, or it can simply be a process leading to a bad endpoint. This is incremental change over time. My, arguably sexist, example is women's swimsuits over time. Women did not go from head-to-toe covering to g-strings over night. Over time - decades - standards and "morality" changed, bit by bit.
Much more important are debt and deficits. Once upon a time, the US was on the gold standard and had little or no debt. Over time, we rationalized fiat money and ever-increasing debt and deficits. This culminated in the Tea Party for financial responsibility. Then we gave up. There are now no limits until the system implodes.
We know better. We are just having too much fun to stop.
Back to observation.
When something that to me is really dumb or destructive happens, I have to adjust my thinking, observe, and think, "what are the motivations of the people who are doing these things?"
It is crucially important to understand that everyone rationalizes their behavior. Most people think they are right and good. Bad behavior and destructive behavior are rationalized away, or, are the result of, "I just want it, or I just want to do it, the devil take the hindmost." I feel like it. I deserve it.
Today, we have the example of Luigi Mangione killing someone on purpose and developing a fan base. Murder is wrong.
But, identity and grievance trump even universal morality. For-profit health insurance is a bad thing, you see, and therefore, killing someone leading such an abomination is ok and strikes a blow for right-thinking people everywhere. This is OJ in white-face with a liberal faction substituting for blacks on the jury.
To me, it is an abomination.
But people routinely justify abomination, and you do not have to go the the Holocaust, or Killing Fields, or Hutus and Tutsis, or the attack on blacks in St. Louis, or the extermination of Aborigines on Tasmania to see that. Look at Luigi or even the trivial stupidity of Jussie Smollett, who is supported by his group.
Or the rise of Graham Platner.
It's what we do.
It's a feature, not a bug.
We don't have to go to such dramatic lengths for examples.
Our educational system is a disaster - I'm using my words carefully. But everyone supports their local schools and teachers even if they are demonstrably failing.
Congress' reputation is at historic lows and we continue to send our representatives and senators back to Congress.
We create rules and laws and religions and peer pressure and institutions to try to keep these things down to a dull roar.
In a time like today when all constraints are loosening or even disappearing, we are inviting chaos.
As always, the First Turning is coming with rules and laws and religions and peer pressure and institutions.
But that only begins in five or ten years and will take a while to implement.
The Market
I still think we are heading for a pretty spectacular drop in the stock markets, in the midst of an overall bull markets. Gold and oil down.
The Iran War
> There is not much to add here from what I said last week. Nothing has changed. Fragile agreement; a long way to go.
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Short Takes
Gallery
If Paul Revere took his midnight ride this year, he could stop at 7 Dunkin locations.
Gallery
Miscellaneous
