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Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer

Kit Webster

Themes and Theses

Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud

(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)

The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.

The crisis will be serious and could be existential.

Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.

International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.

There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.

Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.

Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.

Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.

Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.

There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next five years or so will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.

(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.

(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.

(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.

Insurrection

June 20, 2025

Quotes to Contemplate

No war is at first unpopular - Ramsay MacDonald

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There is nothing that exists so great or marvelous / That over time mankind does not admire it less and less.—Lucretius

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The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy them, and only in the short run. — Thomas Sowell

Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue

Insurrections are not that rare, including in the US.

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The game of Iranian nuclear kabuki has been going on for decades, and it is far from clear what is going on.

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Iran has decided not to cave, at least for now, putting Israel and the US into difficult spots. Physically getting rid of Iran's nuclear capabilities seems increasingly unlikely.

Insurrection

Whether it is January 6 or No Kings day, the dynamics of protests in the US are complex.

There are layers upon layers of various participants having various motives, many of which have nothing to do with the subject of the protests.

Are some of them paid?

Yes.

Are some of them there for the entertainment?

Yes.

Are some of them law enforcement infiltrators?

Yes.

Are some of them sincere in whatever belief is motivating the protest?

Yes.

Do some people just want to riot and loot?

Yes.

Are China and Russia egging them on?

Absolutely.

Are some of them protesting things other than whatever the main motivation of the protest is?

Yep.

I have no idea of the proportions. Even people who are against deportation, say, are against it for different reasons. Some support open borders, some don't. Some think people who have established themselves here should get to stay. Some are worried about families. Some are worried about children.

Whatever their motivations, at the beginning it is just a demonstration.

At some point it can become a mob.

Mostly mobs arise from spontaneous combustion or rabble rousing. Sometimes it is in reaction to something law enforcement does - either rightly or wrongly. In any event, things "get out of hand" as the animal comes out and the fight-or-flight instinct gets stuck on fight. Most of the constraints of civilization are cut loose. The "good guys" leave the scene as quickly as possible and what is left is a combination of bad people and people willing to be bad.

Lots of destruction.

The history of the US contains lots of riots that you never hear about, including some insurrections. There are components of almost any protesting group who are insurrectionists. There is the perpetual hope, as is the plot of Les Misérables, that some large group will join an uprising and overthrow the existing order - but that rarely happens.

I turned to Perplexity for a list of insurrections against the US and have included it at the bottom of this newsletter. The definition of insurrection is a touchy subject these days, so I am going to go with whatever Perplexity says it is.

Last week, I noted that my prediction was that there would one day be major crises, perhaps sparked by a protest, but that No Kings day would probably not be it. Most people are for deportation in one form or another and emotions are just not high enough. Having said that, something a innocuous as the housewives' march on Versailles turned out to be a pivot point. 

There are so much division and so much anger in the country that, as with pre-Revolutionary France, there is a lot of tinder looking for a spark.

Mass protests provide the opportunity for that spark.

Protest turns into riot turns into insurrection.

I don't think we are there, yet, but almost by definition, when it comes, I will be surprised, even though I have said it is coming.​​​

Markets

Updated charts

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> No change in outlook. 

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My first, big, long-term call is now over. Oil price decreased as I have been predicting, and has probably made a major bottom. From here, it should be on its way to new highs.

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My current big call, which has also been longstanding, is basically a crash in the dollar - but not yet. It is close to making its first major leg down, so should rally for a while in here.

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Interest rates should also go down in here with major increases coming later.

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> It begins

So, You Say You Want A Revolution?

> The Empire strikes back - with litigation as far as the eye can see.

- Federal Judge William Young ruled on Monday that the Trump administration’s decision to cancel National Institute of Health (NIH) grants over their purported support for diversity, equity, and inclusion programs was “void and illegal,” arguing the policy amounted to unlawful government discrimination. 

- U.S. Scrambles To Bring Back Voice of America's Persian Service Amid Iran-Israel Conflict.

- A divided Supreme Court on Wednesday cleared the way for states to ban certain gender transition treatments for minors.

- An appeals court allowed Trump to keep the National Guard in Los Angeles.

> Trump said he would take up to two weeks to decide whether to strike Iran.

> No King day was, with the notable exception of Portland, mostly peaceful (really - I know "mostly peaceful" is a meme, but in this case, I'm using it straight up). Turnout was large across approximately 2,000 cities - credible estimates run as high as five million. Perhaps the threat of police and military action calmed things down, but overall, a very impressive undertaking.

> Trump's military parade came off ok, but attendance was significantly below expectations.

> The Trump administration ordered ICE officers on Friday to stop conducting raids and arrests on most farms, restaurants, and hotels, and aquaculture or meatpacking plants. Then it reversed itself and the raids are back on.

> Unlikely - The Trump Organization said it would launch a mobile-phone service, it also said it would sell a $499 T1 Phone beginning in August with some specs that beat the current top iPhone. A press release said the gold Android phone would be “proudly designed and built in the United States.”

> ICE could run out of money as soon as next month, according to a new Axios report.

> Andrew Arthur, a law and policy fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies and a former immigration judge, wrote in the New York Post on Sunday that an estimated 1 million illegal aliens have self-deported since President Trump's second term began. 

> Trump defied Congress and the Supreme Court again by extending the time for the TikTok decision.

Evolution

I want to make a meta point about my comments last week on women and culture.

Humans are still evolving in the classic, Darwinian fashion.

However, that is slow and not much has actually happened in a long time.

We are rapidly evolving culturally and technologically.

Arguably, there is an addendum to Darwin's Ascent of Man, that describes different components of evolution due to our self-awareness and ability to make tools.

It is not primarily about genes anymore.

Women with agency and AI are both operating on (some) humans to produce a species that is profoundly distinct from its predecessors, even though our genes will be the same.

I don't want to get into the details of another complicated train of thought, but we are simultaneously manipulating our environment and culturally adapting in a survival-of -the-fittest sense into that environment.

There is another thread of these thoughts that wonders whether the human animal can survive its use of technology, eg, nuclear weapons and gain-of-function in viruses, or even the reproductive decline from Women with agency.

Iran's Nuclear Kabuki

Iran has been t-h-i-s close to a bomb for decades. One of Obama's most shameful acts was the planeload of cash delivered to Tehran. 

I genuinely have no idea what is going on, but, while it is difficult to make an atomic bomb, it is not that hard, particularly for a people as resourceful as the Iranians. North Korea has the bomb, for god's sake.

It is evidently in the best interests of all involved for Iran to stay just short of the line and have everyone running around and pulling their hair for decades.

I am particularly confused about this round of Israeli attacks on Iran. I get it - Israel is fed up with Hamas and Hezbollah and Yemen and Iran and is not going to take it anymore. But the odds of taking out Iranian nuclear facilities were very low without US involvement, and, even with US involvement, everything would have to go very well.

This is either stupid or 3-D chess, and it beats the hell out of me.

Short Takes

> In a significant departure from recent years at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada, the host nation is sidelining climate action and gender equality, issues that were once central to the summit’s mission.

> The new American pope, Pope Leo XIV, or the “Pope of the Workers”, has declared he feels AI is a threat to human dignity, justice, and labor, and has made it clear that he will make AI central to his agenda.

> Members of the British Parliament on Wednesday voted to decriminalize late-term abortions for women in England and Wales.

> Damn, life's complicated. Seems that China is conducting a major hacking operation on Russian information.

Miscellany

So bad, it's good -

This one got to me for some reason - 

This is good - Greece 1, Troy 0, news at 10, click here.

Major Insurrections Against the United States

Throughout its history, the United States has faced numerous insurrections—armed uprisings, rebellions, or organized attempts to overthrow or defy federal or state authority. Below is a list of some of the most significant insurrections, spanning from the post-Revolutionary era to the 20th century:

18th and Early 19th Century

  • Shays’ Rebellion (1786–1787)

    • Led by Daniel Shays, this Massachusetts uprising of indebted farmers protested economic injustices and attempted to seize the federal armory in Springfield. The rebellion was suppressed by state militia but highlighted weaknesses in the Articles of Confederation and spurred the drafting of the U.S. Constitution12.

  • Whiskey Rebellion (1791–1794)

    • Western Pennsylvania farmers violently resisted a federal excise tax on whiskey. President George Washington led federal troops to suppress the revolt, affirming federal authority23.

  • Gabriel’s Conspiracy (1800)

    • Enslaved blacksmith Gabriel Prosser planned a large slave revolt in Virginia, which was discovered and suppressed before it could be carried out4.

Slave Rebellions and Native Uprisings

  • German Coast Uprising (1811)

    • The largest slave revolt in U.S. history, involving 300–500 enslaved people in Louisiana, aiming to seize New Orleans. It was quickly suppressed with brutal reprisals54.

  • Denmark Vesey’s Conspiracy (1822)

    • A planned slave uprising in Charleston, South Carolina, organized by Denmark Vesey, was foiled before it began4.

  • Nat Turner’s Rebellion (1831)

    • Nat Turner led a violent slave uprising in Virginia, resulting in the deaths of about 60 white people and the execution of Turner and many followers54.

  • Black Seminole Slave Rebellion (1835–1838)

    • Enslaved Africans and Seminole allies fought against U.S. forces in Florida, part of the larger Second Seminole War4.

  • The Dakota Uprising (1862)

    • Also known as the Sioux Uprising, Dakota (Sioux) people in Minnesota rebelled against U.S. government agents and settlers, resulting in significant casualties before being put down6.

Civil War Era and Reconstruction

  • New York City Draft Riots (1863)

    • Violent protests against the Civil War draft, particularly by Irish immigrants, devolved into deadly attacks on Black residents and widespread destruction6.

  • Wilmington Insurrection (1898)

    • Also called the Wilmington Coup, white supremacists violently overthrew the elected, biracial government of Wilmington, North Carolina, in a rare example of a successful coup d’état on U.S. soil31.

20th Century and Beyond

  • San Juan Nationalist Revolt (1950)

    • Puerto Rican nationalists staged an armed uprising against U.S. rule in Puerto Rico, including attacks in Jayuya and Utuado. The revolt was quickly suppressed by U.S. and Puerto Rican authorities37.

  • Black Power and Red Power Movements (1960s–1970s)

    • While not always strictly insurrections, some radical groups (e.g., Black Panther Party, American Indian Movement) engaged in armed occupations and confrontations with federal authorities, such as the 1973 Wounded Knee incident3.

Other Notable Insurrections and Uprisings

  • Battle of Athens (1946)

    • Armed citizens in Tennessee, including WWII veterans, confronted corrupt local officials in a violent standoff, leading to election reforms3.

  • Green Corn Rebellion (1917)

    • A short-lived, armed uprising by tenant farmers and Native Americans in Oklahoma against the draft during World War I

  • Various Slave Ship Mutinies and Smaller Slave Revolts

    • Including the Creole Mutiny (1841), where enslaved people seized a ship and sailed to freedom in the Bahamas

​Note: This list is not exhaustive. Numerous smaller uprisings, labor strikes, and acts of resistance have occurred throughout U.S. history, many of which involved significant violence or armed confrontation with authorities

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