Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Kit Webster
Themes and Theses
Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud
(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)
The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.
The crisis will be serious and could be existential.
Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.
International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.
There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.
Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.
Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.
Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.
Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.
There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.
(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.
(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.
(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.
(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.
(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.
(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.
Trump And The Tar Baby - It Takes Two To Taco
March 27, 2026
Quotes to Contemplate
Strange situation where we await a statement from Iran to check whether there's any truth to what US president is saying. - from X
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This is going to be worse than 2008 and Covid, combined. - Luke Gromen
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Debt tends to build up over multiple credit cycles in the private sector, until it reaches its absolute limits. At that point, rather than mass defaults occurring, money usually gets printed and the debt starts to get rotated up onto the sovereign level via much larger fiscal deficits. Then, when debt builds up significantly on the sovereign level, the next release valve is through inflationary currency debasement and major political resets. - Lyn Alden in a longer version of her famous, "Nothing Stops This Train."
Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue
It takes two to taco.
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From energy to fertilizer to helium, things are getting uglier and uglier.
Markets
Trump And The Tar Baby - It Takes Two To Taco
Metaphors gone wild - whiplash guaranteed.
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I'm not sure whether this is politically incorrect, but I grew up with the Uncle Remus stories about Brer Rabbit and Brer Fox. It seems that one day, Brer Rabbit was walking down the road when he saw a tar baby in the field. Brer Rabbit wished the tar baby a good day, but the tar baby did not respond. This irritated Brer Rabbit, so he walked over to the tar baby and asked what was going on. The tar baby still didn't say anything. Brer Rabbit punched the tar baby and his fist got stuck in the tar. He hit with his other hand and it got stuck. Similarly with his two feet.
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Joel Chandler Harris should have ended the story with the moral - it takes two to taco.
Then there's quicksand. Again, when I was growing up, quicksand was everywhere in the movies and on tv, and I was convinced that when I went out into the world, I would have to be vigilant about stepping into quicksand (literally stepping into it; I metaphorically regularly step into it).
When the Iranians decided that the Iran war was a fight to the death, Trump, and we, found out that the US had attacked a tar baby - jumped in with both feet.
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Iran has decided that the US does not have the political stamina for a protracted war - that pressure to give in will increase as the economy deteriorates and inflation increases. That we will run out of defensive weapons.
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I think they are making good points.
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They are acting like they are not going to let us go.
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The other key dynamic is that you cannot win a war by bombing, and so far, we are a one-trick pony.
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But, this is oil we are talking about. This is geopolitics of the highest order. We can't just quit and go home.
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We're stuck.
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As always, things can change tomorrow. Iran could be running a bluff. However, next steps include boots on the ground (my probability now 80% and this weekend is as good of a time as any) and nuclear (my probability now 20%).
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I hate dramatics. Things are very seldom as important in the long run as we hope or fear. (As an exercise, try to remember what you were outraged about this time last year. Five years ago? Ten years ago? At least 90% of all outrage is short term and useless.) Usually we muddle through - even a catastrophe of the scope of the Vietnam War. However, in this case, we are fooling around with energy, the lifeblood of the world's economy. This is high stakes poker and we are going all in. We started with a strong hand, but the other guy is hanging in there and there is always the possibility of an ace on the river.
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The world has been changed, and we do not yet have any idea what the consequences will be.
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We have known since the time of the Ancient Greeks that hubris is a major affront to the gods.
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But, we never learn.
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We have really stepped in it this time.
> Trump stepped back from Armageddon by extending deadlines. What is the name for a tactical taco?
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> Luke Gromen -
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The Iranians have succeeded in essentially knocking the US out of the Mideast – so unless the US changes this situation on the ground, the starting point of any Iranian negotiating position is likely to be “US stays out of the Mideast now that we knocked them out.”
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The above suggests Hormuz is highly, HIGHLY likely to remain closed until Iran wants it open…and in the meantime, we are likely only 3-4 weeks from cascading global supply chain collapses and economic and financial market catastrophe.
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> Iran's negotiating demands -
— Netanyahu's extradition to the International Criminal Court
— Withdrawal to the October 7th borders
— Cancellation of Trump's Gaza plan
— Lifting all sanctions and releasing frozen assets
— Recognition of Iran's nuclear rights
— Withdrawal from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen
— Evacuation of all US bases from Arab lands
— Trump must issue a public apology to Khamenei
— Compensation for Iran for every sanction imposed upon it
— Reparations for damages
> Doomberg -
No matter how many bombs were dropped on Germany in World War II, capitulation was not achieved until Berlin was stormed. With Japan, it took two nuclear bombs and a large-scale invasion of Japanese-occupied Manchuria by the Soviet Union to convince a still-reluctant population to lay down its arms. For how many years did the US carpet-bomb Vietnam?
For a more contemporary example, consider that Russia has been hammering Ukraine with long-range precision missiles and drones for more than four years, and yet it is still the physical movement of ground troops along one of the longest front lines in the history of warfare that is ultimately deciding the outcome. Is Russia winning the war? By our definition, yes, but at a huge cost.
Now ask yourself, how long might it take to effect regime change and can the global economy withstand the Strait of Hormuz closure for even a fraction of that time? Will the citizens of the US tolerate the devastating loss of troops a ground operation might entail, after the failures in Afghanistan remain fresh in the collective memory?
> There are only two threads to be pulled on regarding the Iran War -
1. It was Putin-level arrogant and stupid.
2. The government had wargamed it and pretty much understood the implications.
For now, I am going with both 1 and 2.
The Pentagon had wargamed this to the nth degree. That's their job; that's what they do.
And, Trump decided they were wrong.
Just an opinion, based more on dot-connecting than facts.
There actually is a 3, which I discussed last week, which is a variation of 2 and that is that we are playing 4D chess. Unlikely, but possible.
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> The meme is that China will be hurt by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
Yes, it will.
But, from X, "Spoke with some friends in the plastics business. They are just about out of raw materials and cannot find new supplies as China restricts exports of petroleum-related downstream products. This is going to get much worse before it gets better."
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> Observations from Peter Zeihan - "Claims that the U.S. will end the war by seizing Iranian assets make no strategic sense. Targeting Kharg Island or removing the uranium from Isfahan with ground operations is just too risky.
These narratives are likely just a reflection of the U.S. searching for a symbolic win, rather than a practical military plan. But this conflict could be pushing Iran closer to nuclear armament. Iran's ability to quickly build a bomb wasn't enough deterrence, so building a bomb appears to be the only option left.
As the war escalates and moderates are sidelined (or killed), the Iran war will grow less coherent and much more dangerous."
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"Now that the Strait of Hormuz is shut down due to the Iran war, the impact is beginning to hit global food systems. This is coming in the form of fertilizer production disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
Potash and phosphate-based fertilizers remain mostly unaffected, but nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely on natural gas are the problem. Global urea and ammonia supplies are already being hit hard.
Prices will begin to rise, and places like China and India will face chronic fertilizer shortages. This will reduce global food production, and I think you can guess what happens after that..."
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> South Korea: President Lee Jae Myung called on the public to take shorter showers and avoid charging electronics at night as part of an energy-saving campaign because of the war.
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> The Philippines has declared a state of national energy emergency due to a severe shortage of oil amid the Iran War. Demonstrations have started.
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> So, you know the story. Liberal California. Environment important. So, they create a special blend of gasoline that only they use. And they make it impossible for refineries to operate in the state. Few pipelines connect California to the rest of the country. So they are increasingly reliant on imports. The war is wreaking havoc on the oil markets. California gas prices now above $6 and diesel above $7. The interesting question is whether they will have to begin rationing gasoline and diesel. And jet fuel. Something, something, chickens, home to roost. This is not about environmental policy - it is about survival along the way - as Germany has learned. Our hysteria in pursuit of religion is awesome to behold.
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> Here's to The Economist cover as a contrary indicator.
Las Vegas, the Mob, Capitalism and Me
I'm not sure when my first trip to Las Vegas was - most likely 1967.
I love New York City and Las Vegas. I am very excited when I arrive at each place - and after three days, I really want to get the hell out of there.
First, I was counting cards at blackjack. "Beat The Dealer" had just come out and I inhaled its lessons. I spent many hours dealing myself cards and practicing counting. I did ok, but not spectacularly. I came back most of the time a winner.
Two stories:
I was sitting at the table doing fairly well when they changed dealers. Dealers are rotated all the time, but this time only my dealer was changed. As he was dealing a hand, a "second," the second card in the deck, came out and hung in the deck. The dealer was showing me that he was a mechanic, a card sharp, and had made an intentional mistake. He looked at me and asked if I wanted to keep playing. I thanked him for his time and left.
Casinos don't like card counters.
Another time, I was doing well. I had just asked Beth to marry me and she had come to Vegas with me. My proposal was spontaneous, so there was no ring. I told her to go by the jewelry stores and see if she could find anything. She came by the table to tell me she had found the ring. Back then, chips were kinda like cash, so I took my stack with me to the jewelry store. It turns out that the negotiated price of the ring just equaled my chip stack. I was all in in several ways. They got my chips and Beth got her ring.
Over the years, I traveled to Vegas maybe 4 or 5 time a year. Most of the time, I was comped by the casino, which means free flight, room, meals and the show at my host casino.
As time went by, counting cards became more difficult. Actually, counting multiple decks is the same difficulty as with one deck, but the opportunities when the odds are significantly in your favor are fewer. (The point of counting cards is to find opportunities when the odds are in your favor and bet more at those times.)
For maybe a decade or so, I quit going to Vegas altogether.
By the time I went back, I was playing hold 'em. I had started out online I really enjoy playing poker, and am a good-but-not-great player. I won several tournaments, including trips to Nassau and to London.
Things had changed.
Casinos were massive.
New casinos everywhere.
Hand minimums increased.
Single deck blackjack was very difficult to find, and when you found it, the rules had changed in the casino's favor.
Comps were harder to get at my betting level and the comped freebees were lower.
I can precisely date the beginning of the decline of Vegas to the opening of Circus Circus - the first "family friendly" casino - in 1968. What followed was a long, slow, relentless slide. I played there exactly once. I am not the demographic for playing blackjack while performers go back and forth over my head.
I have not been to Vegas in a while. I can get poker out of my system at Choctaw, an Indian casino just over the Texas border in Oklahoma, and at local card houses where poker is essentially legal. (Online poker, while available, is basically illegal in most states and has other challenges.)
When people go to Vegas these days, the common refrain is that it is very expensive.
I began going when there were fewer, much smaller casinos - Caesar's Palace was maybe a fourth or less of its current size. Back in the day, Vegas was run by the mob.
Great shows, great buffets, cheap rooms, straight odds on the games.
And, people were generally much, much better behaved, at least in public.
But then came the corporations with the mandates of growth and increased profits.
So, over time, you squeeze every dime you can.
You charge market rates for rooms, and then add a resort fee.
You charge high prices for shows and the buffet.
You begin changing the odds in the games, like not paying 1.5:1 for blackjack, lowering a player's expectation of profit.
This is not your grandfather's Vegas.
The mob wanted its fair share and that was it. All corporations understand is, more.
And, more's the pity.
Something has to change. They have followed my law that humans will take every trend to its extreme.
I hope it changes soon. I would like to relive the good old days.
For three days.
But, you can't go home again.
So, You Say You Want A Revolution?
(I will explicitly note any use of AI throughout this newsletter. If there is no AI-note, you can assume it is either my writing or a quote from a news source.)
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> USC canceled a California governor’s debate on short notice after facing outrage over including only white candidates.
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> Transportation Security Administration Deputy Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill said in a House of Representatives hearing that unless Congress provides funding, TSA may need to decide “which airports we might try to keep open and which ones we might have to shut down as our callout rates increase.”
Short Takes
> Gregg Phillips, appointed in December to lead FEMA’s Office of Response and Recovery, claims to have been involuntarily teleported, including once to a Georgia Waffle House 50 miles away.
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> The Chinese auto giant BYD has introduced super-fast EV charging. The company just announced that its Flash Chargers can now charge a vehicle battery from 10% to 70% in just five minutes.
Gallery
Whatever you do, don't marry a woman - or - "why can't a woman be more like a man?"
Miscellaneous
