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Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer

Kit Webster

Themes and Theses

Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud

(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)

The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.

The crisis will be serious and could be existential.

Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.

International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.

There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.

Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.

Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.

Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.

Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.

There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.

(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.

(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.

(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.

(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.

(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.

(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.

Mea - kinda - Culpa

August 21, 2026

Quotes to Contemplate

If the goal of the Iran war was to discredit both the US defense umbrella and (US Treasury’s) usefulness as an FX reserve asset relative to gold, then the Iran war has been a smashing success thus far. - Luke Groman

The more nonsensical and obviously absurd a belief is, the more people who hold it (or pretend to) will resist recanting. The potential for humiliation rises in direct proportion to the ridiculousness of what they've publicly swallowed. They see no choice but to double down. - JK Rowling

Our country needs superstar politicians right now. - Darius Dale

Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue

If you were a scientist and encountered a species that was not replacing itself and was fouling its nest, what would you have to say about the health and viability of that species?

One result of the US withdrawing support from allies like Saudi Arabia and South Korea is that they quickly go nuclear. Then the dominoes start falling - Turkey for example - and within just a few years there are many nuclear powers.

The geopolitics of the Middle East are beginning to change as faith in the US is severely eroded among current allies.

I predicted early on in the war that Iran would get their toll. Once that happens, every strait in the world becomes fair game. Particularly look to Turkey and then wonder about the Baltics. This will be yet another of the long-term ripples as consequences of the war.

The end of the end game is beginning with Bessant's market manipulations explicitly signaling that the bond market is in trouble.

So, You Say You Want A Revolution?

> There was quite a reaction to Fauci's diary entry on the effect of the Covid vaccine on pregnant women and their fetuses. I asked Claude for the data, which is included at the bottom of this post. (I have no dog in this hunt. Severe critic of Fauci, Trump and Biden in handling the epidemic; all vaccines have side effects; let's see what the data says.)

> While I am on a roll, something I have been very interested in is the effect of social movements on actual social change. Women ultimately got the vote, and Jim Crow was dismantled (I know, I know, but let's go with it) after long periods of social movement. Homosexual marriage wasn't a thing and then it was. A real exception.

Now that we have some distance, I thought I would take stock of the outcomes of the rage from the George Floyd thing and the Antifa riots. Lots of outrage and lots of property damage. Again, I asked Claude to summarize the result - what was gained from the protests and the destruction? I have also included that answer at the bottom of this post.

> Women now hold 176,000 more U.S. payroll jobs than men, reversing a gap that favored men by nearly 7 million jobs in the 1990s.

> Mamdani official reveals NYC may give grants to local grocers struggling to compete with the mayor’s city-run grocery stores. Sigh. Once you start the madness, it's very difficult to stop.

> CBS poll reveals 58% of Democrats now view socialism positively, compared with just 32% who view capitalism positively.

> The concept of "crimes of necessity" is creeping into Democrat's vernacular. What that means is let poor people get away with shoplifting.

And then they wonder why there are "grocery deserts" and box store closings.

> AOC is distancing herself from past positions on defunding police, prison abolition, and decriminalizing border crossings ahead of a potential 2028 run.

> My mind boggles - rumors are that Hegseth is considering a presidential run.

> Oh, the irony - Trump voted by mail in a Florida election.

> Prediction - if Trump withdraws forces from the Middle East, Saudi Arabia goes nuclear within one year.

> Trump's distancing himself from South Korea and embracing North Korea is stupid, abhorrent, delusional, arbitrary ... this is now the poster child for how Trump operates. South Korea will now go nuclear, followed by Japan and Taiwan. Abject insanity. Let's hope that this one one of his stupid, over-the-top things that he walks back.

A Question

If you were a scientist and encountered a species that was not replacing itself and was fouling its nest, what would you have to say about the health and viability of that species?

Election Interpretation - Closing Prisons

This is the next installment of discussing election campaign promises versus reality.

Today, I want to discuss closing prisons.

That seems really stupid on its face, but like defund the police, it contains a kernel of truth.

That kernel is that the prison system is far from perfect and can use some reform.

Throwing babies out with bathwaters is, however, not a recipe for success. It is, however, what some on the very far left want to do.

​The first reason we have prisons is that people demand "justice." There must be punishment for transgressions for society to function.

The second reason is that there are really violent people that need to be taken off the streets.

The third is that there is a high level of recidivism - approximately two-thirds of offenders are arrested for another crime following their release. This one cuts both ways and it can be viewed that prison is where you go to learn how to commit crime.

Serious discussion usually revolves around how long of a sentence is "fair," and what kinds of rehabilitation can be undertaken to prevent recidivism.

Some of this is showing up in stories about a rapist given three months and then raping again once they were released as "liberal" DAs and judges are sympathetic to these arguments. This creates distrust in the legal system and reactions like 3-strike laws.

This is not new, as the "Officer Krumpky" song from the 1957 play West Side Story attests ("I'm depraved 'cause I'm deprived").

And it is second cousin to free drug use, needles and methadone experiments that have generally had poor results. Treating crime and drug use as a disease.

My bottom line is that the woke mindset is spreading through institutions, including judges and DAs. This is creating a laboratory for the take-down-prisons group. The problem is that it is an incomplete and unsystematic approach that is arguably making things worse.

So, the jury remains out on the primary assumptions.

A responsible approach to prison reform is possible, will take a lot of effort and money, and has little mainstream support.

Scorecard so far - political position vs. the real world:

Doing away with Electoral College - all but impossible.

Doing away with the Senate - all but impossible.

Packing the Supreme Court - doable with control of both Houses and the Presidency and elimination of the filibuster.

DC and Puerto Rico statehoods - Huh?

Doing away with inflation - our economy will have disinflationary and maybe deflationary periods, but the inevitable end game for our debt and deficits includes higher inflation and a lower dollar. In general, allowing for volatility, inflation is inevitable. Look for typical, self-defeating, political tactics like rent and price controls to make everyone feel better as pressures increase and foundations rot.

Medicare for all - highly unlikely and, if implemented, a total shock to the system as severe rationing of health care sets in. Our healthcare system badly needs significant reform, but this is a very, very big, complicated problem.

Taking down prisons - kinda fringy, some justification in the sense of reforming prisons.

The Market

> US debt crossed $40 trillion this week. This continues to be a very fragile, dynamic economy.

> Listen - Darius Dale on Macrovoices. Lots of data; lots of insight.

> The end of the end game is beginning with Bessant's market manipulations explicitly signaling that the bond market is in trouble.

The Iran War

> Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have completely lost trust and faith in the Trump administration and are now united in aggravation with the administration due to the lack of strategy and constant walking back from threats, with some thinking about cancelling the hosting of large US bases, per WaPo. A Gulf official says "Trump started this war, and we are paying the price," with anger now at its highest point of the entire war. Gulf states feel "unnecessarily entangled" in a war Trump is "trapped in and unable to resolve," with Trump's Iran policy described as "erratic" and "unpredictable," US "conduct in the region making them less safe, not more safe," and the US-Iran MoU described as "a joke." Severe US interceptor shortages have compounded the anger, with Gulf states being afraid of Iranian attacks and concerned that the US can't protect them anymore.

> MTG is an idiot, but still ... The Trump administration is actively discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings, per former US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. MTG says "yes you read that correctly. It's real. I'm not speculating, I know." "Our government is the one actually discussing lowering the nuclear threshold in order to use nuclear weapons against Iran even though Trump claims he's won the war like 40 times and says the US controls the Strait of Hormuz," she adds.

> The equilibrium is unstable, you know - Iran has officially decided to shift its policy from defensive to "fully offensive," set a new deadline for Trump, and realized "the mediators are working for Trump," a senior Iranian official tells Reuters. Iran has set a deadline of "a few weeks" for the full implementation of the MoU and all Iranian demands by the US, with the Iranian official saying "it is a proven fact that the US is not serious about a ceasefire and won't commit to any, so putting pressure on the enemy or relying on mediators in the hope of reaching a permanent ceasefire is not realistic." All Iranian entities will be prepared to escalate in the Strait of Hormuz and the region, with Iran saying it "will not wait for the US to continue the naval blockade indefinitely."

> The Telegraph - We’re at the “crazy talk” stage of the constantly revolving cycle that passes for Donald Trump’s Iran policy. Rather than threaten to destroy the country's power plants – or even its entire civilisation – as he has during previous rounds of the carousel, Trump is now fulminating about bombing “the s---” out of Oman, a reliable Western ally for generations.

> I predicted early on in the war that Iran would get their toll. Once that happens, every strait in the world becomes fair game. Particularly look to Turkey and then wonder about the Baltics. This will be yet another of the long-term ripples as consequences of the war.

Mea - kinda - Culpa

Beth suggested that I take stock, after thirty-some-odd years, as to what I got right and what I got wrong - so far - in my predictions for crisis in the United States.

The good news is that I got a lot right.

The bad news is that, although I am a card-carrying cynic, and have no faith in the decisions of humans, I was unprepared for the depth of our stupidity. Truly awe-inspiring.

I outlined a future consisting of converging trends that would end in an overhaul of the US's government and institutions. The crisis point would come during the early 21st century at which point the survival of the US would be in question. However, if it did survive, it would take the ideas and assets lying around at the time and begin rebuilding the nation. See the summary of my thoughts at the top of this post.

THE thing I got wrong - actually did not so much get it wrong that I could not even imagine - is that Congress would vacate the field. That bastion of democracy and freedom would turn into media pundits, unwilling to do much of anything. I thought that Congress would get caught up in the emotions of the day, whether from the left or right, and do some pretty dumb things. But, never in my wildest dreams would they basically walk off the field and leave the game to the Executive and the Supreme Court.

Central to my theses was the unsustainability of debt, deficits and entitlements. I knew that people would demand free stuff - history says that's just what happens to democracies - but never did I imagine $2 trillion annual deficits and debt exceeding 100% of GDP. We are crazy and irresponsible, but, I thought, not that crazy and irresponsible. This is epic in scope.

I could imagine Obama and Biden and Trump - increasing authoritarianism. That was a central premise of my thoughts. It was likely that the process would end with a (man) on a white horse. So, I was not wrong, there, and Trump fits right in.

I did not imagine the grift - the persistent, pervasive grift that permeates the public sector. It is eroding faith in government and institutions and is bleeding into the private sector. This comes in the form of socialist Bernie Sanders and his three homes, wondering where his wealth comes from, to the astounding, in-your-face schemes by Trump and Hunter Biden. Grift is ingrained in government - power, money - and has been a part of our lives since the nation was founded. I was under no illusion - this historical low rumble that flares up from time to time with the Daleys in Chicago, Tammany Hall in New York, and basically everybody in Louisiana, has come to a full boil. Just rotten. When I look around to see who can change things, I feel like Diogenes in his search for an honest man - I don't see one.

I said that politics would move leftward as chaos increased and people looked to government for salvation. I did not imagine the craziness and stupidity of the woke - defund the police, open the borders, shut down the prisons, pronouns, cancelation. There are always people like this around and every now and then we do actually burn witches. However, I did not anticipate that we would let people literally run riot over social justice matters. I did, and do, anticipate riots as the chaos increases, but those riots will likely be against the old and the wealthy and those in power.

I said that war was possible, even likely. Biden and Afghanistan is just what we do. But the Trump war in Iran was unimaginable. It is an Emperor's New Clothes moment in which it is becoming obvious to the world that the US can no longer fulfill its obligations as protector of the world. However, I did predict that the US would have to withdraw from the world because it could not afford it. I just didn't think anyone would make it happen all at once. Or that Trump would intentionally alienate allies and mismanage our miltary.

I didn't predict Covid, but pandemics come and go. They are neither required nor abolished from my world view. Just like earthquakes and hurricanes.

However, if the Big One happens in California or the Yellowstone volcano blows, all bets are off.

I did predict a multipolar world where countries would try to gain power as the US vacates the stage. That process is under way. We have reached the point that the rest of the world has caught on and understands that this is what is happening.

So, knowing what I know now, how would I change my predictions?

Not much, actually.

Most of the things I did not foresee just make things worse, sooner. They do not change the plot or the storyline - they are a matter of degree, not kind.

I have made the important changes in my summary, above, and they are

(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.

(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.

(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.

(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.

(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.

So, so far, so good, particularly for a 30+ year forecast.

The only lesson I have learned is not to put a lower limit on human stupidity, masochism and perversity.

Worse is yet to come.

Short Takes

> Just what we need. Derek Chauvin Seeks To Dismiss Charges In Death Of George Floyd. - There were clear mistakes made in the rush-to-judgement, which sometimes resembled political theater. I think he is on sound footing here, but it will open old wounds - just what we need.

Gallery

Miscellaneous

Claude on the Effects of the Covid Vaccine on Pregnancy

The evidence base

The literature here is unusually large for a pregnancy exposure — millions of vaccinated pregnancies across national registries in the UK, Scotland, Sweden/Norway, Israel, Canada, France, and US health systems. It is almost entirely observational (pregnant women were excluded from the original trials), and it is almost entirely about mRNA products.

Pregnancy and neonatal outcomes. The consistent finding across large cohorts is no detectable increase in adverse outcomes. A Swedish/Norwegian population study of 85,162 births found no increased risk of overall preterm birth (adjusted HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.96–1.08), spontaneous preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age (0.98, 0.93–1.03), or stillbirth (0.65, 0.51–0.84), with findings similar across trimester of vaccination, vaccine product, and dose count. A 23-study meta-analysis of 117,552 vaccinated pregnancies found no evidence of higher risk of miscarriage, earlier gestation at birth, placental abruption, pulmonary embolism, postpartum hemorrhage, maternal death, ICU admission, lower birthweight Z-score, or NICU admission, and a 15% lower stillbirth risk (pooled OR 0.85, 0.73–0.99). nihnih

A living systematic review through October 2023 is the most methodologically cautious of the lot: it graded the evidence low to very low certainty, concluding vaccination likely produces minimal to no important differences across all assessed maternal and infant safety outcomes — a range spanning 26 fewer to 17 more events per 1,000 pregnancies and 13 fewer to 9 more per 1,000 neonates — while finding statistically significant reductions in emergency cesarean delivery (9%) and stillbirth. The low certainty grade reflects observational design and confounding risk, not contrary findings. Springer

Congenital anomalies — the teratogenicity question. This is where early data were genuinely thin, since the v-safe registry captured mostly third-trimester exposures. It has since been addressed directly. A French nationwide cohort of 527,564 live births, of which 130,338 (24.7%) were exposed to an mRNA vaccine in the first trimester, found no association with increased risk across 75 different major congenital malformations, whether examined overall, by organ system, or individually. A Scottish matched cohort restricted to exposure from six weeks pre-conception through 19+6 weeks similarly found no association between vaccination and any anomaly or any non-genetic anomaly. nihNature

Benefit side. Maternal: mRNA effectiveness against PCR-confirmed infection 7 days after the second dose was 89.5% (69.0–96.4%) in the pre-Omicron era; that number is much lower now against current variants, and the durable benefit is against severe disease rather than infection. Infant: this is the distinctive argument, since under-6-month infants can't be vaccinated. Kaiser Permanente Northern California found effectiveness against infant infection of 84% through 2 months in the Delta period but only 13% through 6 months during Omicron, with COVID hospitalization incidence in the first six months of 21 vs. 100 per 100,000 person-years for infants of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated mothers. More recent Kaiser work found third-trimester vaccination gave more infant protection than vaccination at any other point (64.6% vs. 52.9%), and pre-pregnancy vaccination was not significantly effective, likely reflecting antibody waning and the fact that most transplacental transfer occurs in the third trimester. A Norwegian cohort of all live births 2021–2023 found a 36% lower risk of COVID-related hospital contact in the first six months, with no protective effect against other infection types — the null result on non-COVID infections is a useful specificity check against healthy-vaccinee bias (my inference, not the authors' framing). nih + 4

Longer-term child outcomes. Two prospective cohorts with 12–18 month follow-up (ASPIRE in the US, COVI-PREG in Switzerland) found no adverse signal on infant neurodevelopment through 18 months; COVI-PREG found in utero exposure to either SARS-CoV-2 or mRNA vaccine was not associated with a low score on ASQ-3 subdomains at 12 months. Follow-up beyond toddlerhood does not yet exist. That is a real gap, though it's a gap shared with essentially every pregnancy exposure studied on this timeline. ClinicalmicrobiologyandinfectionUniversity of Manchester

What the comparator looks like. The counterfactual isn't neutral. Infection itself carries documented risk: pregnancy raises the risk of COVID-related hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and death relative to similarly aged non-pregnant people, and infection is associated with hypertension, pre-eclampsia, impaired fetal growth, and preterm birth. On the neurodevelopmental side the asymmetry is notable — a meta-analysis found prenatal SARS-CoV-2 exposure associated with elevated risk of transient hearing impairment (RR 2.01) and delays in fine motor (1.55) and problem-solving (1.32) skills, appearing to resolve over time, and one small prospective study (142 dyads) linked in utero viral exposure to lower cognitive scores at age 2, mediated partly by altered newborn cortical gray matter volumes. medrxiv + 2

Honest limitations

Nearly all of this is observational, so residual confounding — vaccinated women differing systematically in health behavior, care access, and comorbidity — can't be fully excluded, which is exactly why the living review's certainty grades are low. The apparent stillbirth reduction should be read cautiously for this reason; it's more plausibly partly confounding plus prevented infection than a direct protective effect of the vaccine on placental function. Non-mRNA platforms have much thinner data. And follow-up past ~18 months is absent.

Current guidance is split, and it's a policy dispute, not an evidence dispute

US federal recommendations shifted in 2025: CDC's 2025–2026 recommendation for everyone 6 months and older is now framed as individual decision-making, while still stating that pregnancy increases risk of severe illness and that vaccination during pregnancy has not been linked to increased health risks for women or babies. ACOG went the other way — it withdrew as an ACIP liaison in February 2026 and in June issued its own maternal immunization schedule, the first time it has formally departed from federal recommendations — arguing that federal language has shifted while the underlying scientific evidence has not, and that for a high-risk population vaccination should be recommended as standard preventive care rather than deferred to neutral shared decision-making. Uptake has collapsed regardless: as of February 21, 2026, 11.1% of pregnant women had received a COVID vaccine.

Claude on the Effects of the George Floyd and Antifa Protests/Riots

Two framing points before the substance, because they change how the outcomes read.

First, the two things you've named aren't parallel. The 2020 racial-justice protest wave was a mass mobilization — thousands of events across all 50 states — that generated its own legislative agenda. "Antifa" is a decentralized militant tendency with no organizational structure, and it produced essentially no policy of its own. Its tangible regulatory footprint is almost entirely as an object of counter-mobilization. Second, the durable outcomes split cleanly into two waves: a 2020–2022 reform wave and a 2023–2026 reversal wave. Most of what was enacted federally has since been undone.

Policing law: substantial state action, near-zero federal durability

The state-level output was real and mostly still on the books. An analysis of NCSL data by the University of Maryland's Howard Center found governors approved nearly 300 police-related bills after Floyd's May 2020 killing, with only five states passing no significant policing changes in that period; California and Virginia each approved more than two dozen. Between May 2020 and May 2021, 24 states restricted or banned chokeholds and neck restraints and 11 states changed no-knock warrant rules. Qualified immunity is the narrow exception rather than the rule: Colorado and New Mexico enacted broad statutory bans, Connecticut narrowed the standard, and New York City created a local cause of action — but the doctrine is largely unchanged nationally, and these look like isolated experiments rather than systemic shift. CNSMaryland.org + 2

Federally, the reform wave produced nothing permanent. The George Floyd Justice in Policing Act passed the House twice and died in the Senate, with qualified immunity as the deal-breaker. Biden's substitute, EO 14074 (May 2022), applied only to federal agencies — DOJ use-of-force revisions, a chokehold/carotid ban, no-knock limits, body-camera policy, and a duty to intervene, plus a National Law Enforcement Accountability Database. Trump rescinded EO 14074 on January 20, 2025, and DOJ decommissioned NLEAD. U.S. Department of JusticeCongress.gov

The consent-decree channel closed too. In May 2025 DOJ moved to dismiss the Minneapolis and Louisville consent decrees and closed investigations into police in Phoenix, Trenton, Memphis, Mount Vernon, Oklahoma City, and the Louisiana State Police. A federal judge dismissed the Louisville agreement on December 31; Minneapolis's was dismissed earlier, though a separate state-level decree remains. CNNyahoo

Prosecutorial accountability, by contrast, held: Derek Chauvin was convicted at the state level and separately pleaded to federal civil-rights charges, and the other three officers were convicted federally. That was a genuine shift in a domain where such prosecutions had historically been rare — but it's case-specific, not structural.

Budgets: cut, then restored above baseline

"Defund" was largely rhetorical in fiscal terms. The 50 largest cities cut 2021 police budgets 5.2% in aggregate — often as part of pandemic austerity — while policing rose slightly as a share of general expenditures, to 13.7%. PolitiFact found that of 21 cities that proposed FY2021 cuts, at least 14 scaled the cuts back before adoption or reversed course the next budget year. Austin, the sharpest case, cut roughly $150M and reversed most of it by 2022. Minneapolis voters rejected the charter amendment replacing the police department in November 2021. BloombergPolitiFact

Counter-mobilization: the largest net regulatory output

This is arguably where the demonstrations produced the most durable new law — against protest. ICNL counts over forty new state laws restricting peaceful assembly since 2017, with a concentrated post-2020 wave. Representative mechanisms: Florida HB 1 (2021) broadened the definition of "riot" and created felony penalties, denied bail until first appearance, and allowed officials to appeal municipal police-budget cuts; Iowa shielded drivers from civil liability for injuring someone unlawfully blocking a road during a protest or riot, and Oklahoma extended organizational liability to entities that "conspire" with riot participants. Several were narrowed or enjoined — Florida's riot definition drew an injunction, and Oklahoma's provisions were narrowed following a Tenth Circuit order — but much survived. ICNL + 3

The antifa-specific action is entirely in this column. On September 22, 2025, Trump signed an executive order designating "Antifa" a domestic terrorist organization and directing agencies to use all applicable authorities to investigate, disrupt, and dismantle its operations and funding, followed by NSPM-7, which directs DOJ, Treasury, and IRS to monitor and act against organizations purportedly linked to political violence or domestic terrorism. Two things to be precise about here: there is no domestic analogue to the FTO/SDGT statutes, so the designation cites no legal basis and functions as a policy directive rather than a designation with direct legal consequences — the practical exposure runs through existing conspiracy, RICO, material-support, and tax-exempt-status authorities. The operative risk is to nonprofits and funders, not to a membership roster that doesn't exist. White House + 2

Corporate and institutional: pledge, underdeliver, retreat

Pledges were enormous and disbursement was not. McKinsey tallied about $340 billion pledged by Fortune 1000 companies between May 2020 and October 2022, but the Washington Post's audit of the 50 most valuable companies found 37 had confirmed disbursing at least $1.7 billion of $49.5 billion pledged, and of the $4.2 billion structured as outright grants, roughly $70 million went to criminal-justice reform — the actual cause of the protests. Most of the headline dollars were lending and investment commitments (JPMorgan's $30B) that would plausibly have been booked anyway. mckinsey + 2

The institutional reversal came fast: SFFA v. Harvard (2023) ended race-conscious admissions, and EO 14173 (January 21, 2025) revoked EO 11246 entirely, ended contractor affirmative-action obligations, and required contractors to certify they operate no DEI programs violating federal anti-discrimination law, with OFCCP ordered to cease all enforcement under 11246. The 1965-era contractor compliance framework is gone. Congress.govU.S. Department of Labor

Costs and opinion

Insured property losses ran in the range of $1–2 billion per Property Claim Services, the costliest civil-disorder event it has tracked since 1950, against $775 million (about $1.42B in 2020 dollars) for the 1992 LA riots. The novel feature for underwriters was geographic breadth — the first civil disturbance to cause substantial property losses across more than one state — which pushed SRCC exposure into renewal pricing and exclusion discussions. Axios + 2

Opinion reverted and then some. Pew: support for BLM peaked at 67% in June 2020, fell to 55% by September 2020, and was 51% by 2023; by the five-year mark, 27% of adults said the demonstrations led to improvements in Black Americans' lives, down from 52% who expected them to in 2020. Pew Research CenterIdeastream Public Media

What remains genuinely contested

I'd flag three things as unsettled rather than resolved, and you should discount confident claims either way. The 2020 homicide spike's causation — protest-related de-policing versus pandemic disruption, gun sales, and social-service collapse — is disputed; rural areas with no defund movement also saw increases. Whether the state-level use-of-force and decertification statutes actually reduced police killings is not clearly established; the national count of fatal police shootings has not declined meaningfully. And officer attrition and recruiting shortfalls are real but their attribution to protest-driven morale effects versus labor-market conditions is contested.

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