Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Kit Webster
Themes and Theses
Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud
(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)
The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.
The crisis will be serious and could be existential.
Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.
International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.
There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.
Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.
Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.
Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.
Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.
There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.
(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.
(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.
(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.
(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.
(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.
(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.
The F-Word
February 13, 2026
Quotes to Contemplate
Human beings are born with different capacities. If they are free, they are not equal. And if they are equal, they are not free. - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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I know a lot of folks were upset about this year's halftime show by Bad Bunny being in Spanish... but let's be real: I didn't understand a single word Kendrick Lamar said last year either. - from X
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The reason big government exists is because most people are in favor of big government.
They just differ on where government should be big. - Lyn Alden
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The cost of creating and maintaining software is collapsing to zero. - Jim Bianco
Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue
I am continuing to be concerned that Trump is becoming increasingly unhinged.
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The terms, fascist and racist, have lost all meaning. "Fascist", however, does encompass a concerning kernel of truth.
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We are entering an era of nuclear proliferation. Every country will want nukes.
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Trump's dismantling of emissions regulations for transportation is both shortsighted and, partially, an appropriate reaction to religious overreach on the part of supporters of global warming. Global warming is "real" and will have a significant impact over the coming decades.
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The cost of creating and maintaining software is collapsing to zero.
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The F-Word
"The word 'Fascism' has now no meaning except in so far as it signifies 'something not desirable.'" - George Orwell
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In an alternative universe, were I to give a speech about anything controversial, I would begin by telling the crowd to scream at me, as one, "You are a fascist." Then, "You are a racist." And we would get that out of the way and move on. It is difficult to function these days without being both fascist and racist.
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We have a lack of imagination, here. I don't know how many descriptors are available in the English language, but outraged people seem to know only two (maybe three - "Nazi" seems to come and go). I would give long odds that 80-90% of the wielders of the word, fascism, have no idea what it actually means.
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From my experience watching the melodramas play out on TV, anybody can be labeled a fascist or racist, but very few actually are. It's a metaphor for our times - a chimpanzee-hurling-poo kind of a thing. Negative emotion creating division with nothing interesting or worthwhile behind it.
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The memes -
White, liberal women are the meme, while white conservatives have their Karens (now Jessicas - I have no idea why the rebranding was necessary; I think it's a GenZ thing).
So, it's all stupid and unproductive and all of that.
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But ...
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​So is most of our social antagonism these days.​
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Only ...
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There's a kernel of truth that is probably worth exploring.
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It's just that we're going to have to use a few more words and a dash of nuance.
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I'm not going to get into the actual definition of fascism, since its meaning as the word is used today has evolved from its beginnings as a social system like communism or capitalism, but where individual rights are subordinate to the nation. (Interesting factoid - it actually began in Italy with Mussolini and not with Hitler.) Since fascism involves state intervention, which often requires force, the word now seems to primarily refer to state authoritarianism to do things you do not support (state authoritarianism to do things you do support is, of course, right and proper). It is mostly the left that uses the term - authoritarian control, formal and informal, imposed by the woke is just called ... well ... woke (the word, woke, contains multitudes). So, by definition, to be "fascist," you have to at least be to the right of the far left.
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As a bit of irony, socialism is actually fascism that is a little bit pregnant - using state power to distribute and redistribute goodies, subjecting some, but not all, individual rights to the nation. But that is not my point, here. I have written extensively about how people continually try out various combinations of theories of governance in an attempt to compensate for the weaknesses of the pure implementations of the various systems.
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I have two, principal points: we are fiercely divided socially in a winner-take-all struggle in several dimensions; and the Executive Branch of our federal government has become increasingly autocratic for several decades, particularly during Trump II.
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So, there's empty fascism in the sense of doing something the far left does not like, and there is real fascism in the sense of government's increasing direction of the culture and economy through personal edict. The battle is fully engaged.
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I will conclude with a discussion by Claude:
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The Authoritarian Drift Debate in the US
This is one of the most actively contested questions in American political analysis. Here's a balanced assessment of the key dimensions:
Indicators That Suggest Authoritarian Tendencies
Institutional erosion. There's been measurable decline in norms around independent institutions — pressuring the DOJ, challenging election outcomes, politicizing civil service, and testing the boundaries of executive power. The concept of the "unitary executive" has been pushed further than historical precedent, particularly in the current administration's efforts to consolidate executive authority and sideline congressional oversight.
Democratic backsliding metrics. Organizations like Freedom House, V-Dem, and the Economist Intelligence Unit have downgraded US democracy scores over the past decade. These aren't fringe assessments — they reflect concerns about electoral integrity, media freedom, judicial independence, and civic space.
Norm violation as strategy. What was once considered disqualifying behavior in public officials has become normalized — refusing peaceful transfers of power, demonizing the press as enemies, using government apparatus to target political opponents, and dismissing oversight mechanisms.
Centralization of loyalty over competence. Replacing career professionals with loyalists across federal agencies, inspectors general, and military leadership follows a pattern well-documented in comparative authoritarianism literature.
Counterarguments and Complicating Factors
Institutional resilience. Courts have pushed back on executive overreach repeatedly. Federalism distributes power across 50 states. The press remains active and adversarial. Civil society organizations continue to operate freely, even if under pressure.
Democratic participation remains robust. Voter turnout has actually increased in recent cycles. Protest movements operate openly. Political opposition is vigorous and well-funded.
Historical perspective. The US has experienced authoritarian impulses before — the Alien and Sedition Acts, internment of Japanese Americans, McCarthyism, COINTELPRO. Some scholars argue current trends are cyclical rather than terminal.
Partisan framing. Both sides of the political spectrum accuse the other of authoritarianism — the right points to speech regulation, tech censorship, and regulatory overreach; the left points to democratic norm violations and concentration of executive power. This muddies analytical clarity.
The Honest Assessment
The weight of comparative political science evidence suggests the US is experiencing meaningful democratic erosion, though it has not crossed into outright authoritarianism. The more precise framing scholars use is "competitive authoritarianism" or "democratic backsliding" — a gray zone where elections still occur but the playing field is increasingly tilted, institutions exist but are hollowed out, and opposition is harassed rather than eliminated.
What makes the current moment distinctive isn't any single action but the cumulative pattern: the willingness to test institutional guardrails, the declining bipartisan commitment to democratic norms, and the growing acceptance among segments of the electorate that democratic rules are negotiable when they produce unfavorable outcomes.
Whether this trajectory is reversible depends heavily on whether institutional checks hold, whether political culture reasserts democratic commitments, and whether voters prioritize democratic governance over partisan outcomes. The jury is genuinely still out.
Markets
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It looks like we are going to see nice retracements in gold and silver. I am perplexed as to why bitcoin looks like it may have made a bottom. Perhaps the two are related.
So, You Say You Want A Revolution?
> This is BIG - everybody needs nukes now - Peter Zeihan
"We are not simply at the end of the great era of arms control that literally took tens of thousands of weapons out of circulation. We are now at the dawn of a new era of massive proliferation because we no longer have a structure to limit it. And the changes to the international strategic environment basically demanded it. Because if you're a country that has been on the sidelines for the last 50 years and relying on the bilateral system between the Russians and the Americans to keep a lid on things, all of a sudden that is gone. You no longer have the time necessary to build up a conventional force and obtain some degree of security."​
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> The generation born between 1997 and 2010 is the very first generation who did worse in school than the generation before them, according to a top neuroscientist.
“They’re the first generation in modern history to score lower on standardized academic tests than the one before it,” Dr. Jared Cooney Horvath, 43, told The Post. “And to make matters worse, most of these young people are overconfident about how smart they are. The smarter people think they are, the dumber they actually are.
“They underperformed on basically every cognitive measure, from basic attention, memory, literacy, numeracy, executive function and general IQ.” - NY Post
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> "Take the vaccine, please," Dr Oz urges amid rising measles cases in US.
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> The shutdown.
In the latest episode of one of the nation's longest running soap operas, the government was funded until September.
Except ...
the Department of Homeland Security, whose funding ends today (or maybe tomorrow).
You will be shocked to learn that the two sides are far from agreement.
So look for a mini version of government shutdown.
It turns out that ICE is already funded through the Big Beautiful Bill, so that we are in the midst of political theater again with Democrats grandstanding, using government funding as a platform, but funding will be cut off for operations that are not actually part of the dispute.
(I'm having a crisis of conscience for using the word, grandstanding. I am sympathetic to most of the Democrats' demands. However, I am uncomfortable with the ... yep, grandstanding. They are politicking for the midterms and that's what politicians do.)
Here is the state of play, according to The Morning Dispatch:
"House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer unveiled a list of 10 demands last Wednesday to secure their support for an appropriations bill. The list included requiring judicial warrants for officers to enter private property, ordering agents to remove their masks and wear body cameras, enacting a clear use-of-force policy, and prohibiting the department from using funds to conduct enforcement near “sensitive areas” such as hospitals, schools, and churches. Weaker versions of some of their demands were in the original bill that the two sides negotiated before the Pretti shooting, such as funding for body cameras and a directive for the department to provide more training on de-escalation."
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> China just issued an order to its state banks to slash U.S. Treasury holdings.
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> New applicants for Swedish citizenship will need to wait eight years, prove that they make a minimum income, and show familiarity with Swedish customs and culture.
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> The political season is upon us - since it seems that I am increasingly flogging Trump and members of his administration, following are notable quotes from Democrats this past week.
Democrat Rep. Gene Wu: “The day the Latino, African American, Asian, and other communities realize that they share same oppressor is the day we start winning, because we are the majority in this country now.”
​Crockett on Trump: "We know that he had already been sued prior to him ever entering office, where there were allegations that he sex*ally mol*sted a child. Now, granted, the case didn't go through and whatever..."
Whoopi Goldberg says Bad Bunny’s show was so creative that people didn't understand it, "I keep laughing because I think you do not recognize excellence and creativity when you see it. Do you know how creative that was?" (Kit - I don't care about the Bad Bunny thing, one way or the other. However, it is humbling to find out I'm a Neandertal because I did not recognize its excellence and creativity.)
Chuck Schumer: "Our ultimate goal is a path to citizenship to all 11 million or however many there are here..."
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> Curiouser and curiouser -
"President Donald Trump has threatened to block the opening of a bridge between Michigan and Ontario, claiming Canada is trying to “take advantage of America” and calling for compensation in the latest flash point in the simmering tensions between the United States and its northern neighbor.
The Gordie Howe International Bridge — a six-lane bridge between Detroit and Windsor, Ontario, that has cost about $4.7 billion to build — has been under construction since 2018 and is due to open early this year, according to the organization behind it.
On Monday, Trump said he “will not allow” it to open in a post on Truth Social, saying Canada had treated the U.S. “very unfairly for decades” and that the U.S. would not benefit from the project.
“I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve,” he said. It was unclear how Trump would be able to delay or block the project from opening." - Washington Post.
(Kit) The technical term is, fucking nuts. Another exhibit in my growing concern that he is becoming increasingly unhinged.
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> This is an area in which I don't even have a theory. We seem to not only have outrage, but it is selective outrage.
We are upset at the destruction of Gaza, but there are close to zero demonstrations about the larger slaughter in Ukraine.
The biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses is China, but I see no protests.
I guess the Uighurs are doing fine.
As I noted last week, wokeness is directed only at certain groups and not others.
Our outrage is not general but limited and specific.
If anyone has a theory, I would love to hear it.
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> I'm not a big supporter of flying various flags, but this seems like a genuine travesty - A Pride flag was removed from the Stonewall monument in Manhattan, a historic site for the gay rights movement, after a directive from the federal government. (New York put it back up in defiance of the federal government.)
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> Bondi is an embarrassment.
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> The Trump administration has withdrawn all remaining National Guard troops stationed in Chicago, Los Angeles, Minneapolis and Portland, Oregon, though thousands remain in Washington, D.C.
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> Fact check, true - Scott Jennings: "I've been working in Republican politics for 26 years. Every Republican I've ever worked for said they were going to shrink the government. Trump's the only one that ever did it."
Trump's Dismantling Of Emissions Regulations
This is BIG - The Morning Dispatch
"White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to reverse an “endangerment finding” implemented in 2009, which determined that six greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, “endanger public health or welfare” and empowered the agency to regulate their emissions. Both Leavitt and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin described the move, which the agency intends to make official on Thursday, as the “largest” deregulatory move in U.S. history. Leavitt also claimed the reversal “will save the American people $1.3 trillion in crushing regulations.” Trump administration officials told the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that the decision will remove regulations on greenhouse gas emissions reporting and compliance for motor vehicles, but not for stationary sources, such as oil and gas facilities and power plants."
(Kit) I have written extensively on global warming, although not so much lately. After studying it intensively for over a decade, I came to the conclusion that it is "real," and also that we cannot accurately predict its course. Maybe I need to write a refresher, but, the US could completely shut down tomorrow and global warming would continue. If it continues, it will require significant adjustments by humans decades from now. Most of our hysteria is, as usual, political theater as the politically-correct crowd went on another crusade - but this is also a real problem - a real example of, even though you are paranoid, they may actually be out to get you.
So, what to think about Trump's move to essentially dismantle emissions regulations for transportation?
It is both extremely shortsighted and, partially, an appropriate reaction to a religious movement that has taken things too far.
It is the poster child for the administrative state. The EPA should not be deciding these things; Congress should be deciding these things. You remember Congress? Me neither.
So far, we have done things that really don't matter and haven't done the things that matter - primarily because doing global warming right would significantly reduce living standards around the world.
Net zero really is necessary.
And there we are.
The Revolution Will Be Automated
Mustafa Suleyman, the CEO of Microsoft AI, suggested that most tasks for white-collar workers—specifically those sitting in front of computers (such as lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketers)—will be "fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months".
(Kit) I have been "vibe-coding" and have recently taken up Claude Code.
DAMN!
It is difficult to explain how revolutionary this is.
Complex coding at the clicking of a mouse by a guy who began coding many decades ago, but who also has not coded in decades.
My only reservation is that it makes mistakes and there is some debugging to be done.
But, it is maybe 90% correct and will get better over time.
And, it already at least partially debugs and fixes itself.
And, if it can work in parallel, it launches additional copies of itself to address the task at hand.
I created a system in Claude, asked Claude Code to take a look, and then took the resulting system back to Claude. Claude found and fixed 6 bugs at the end. I'm not sure how many are left, but I am literally blown away. Maybe 30 minutes for a complex automation.
And, I'm talking about the whole app - the front end (html) interface, the code, and the backend integration with databases.
There are not enough superlatives and this has only been out for a couple of months.
Short Takes
> I'm pretty used to the extraordinary times we live in. By that, I mean I will read that Trump posted a video about the Obamas as apes, shrug, shake my head and move on. The unfathomable occurs every day.
Never in a million years did I ever envision the following headline:
"‘Penisgate’ at the Olympics: why inject acid into your penis, and what are the health risks?"
I've thought about it, carefully considered the pros and cons, and decided not to do it.
(Beth said she wanted me to discuss the cons, but I pass.)
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> Endorse - UK Supreme Court outlaws calling oat milk "milk."
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> Over 50% of college-age job seekers had their parents sit with them at an in-person interview, a January survey by Resume Templates found. Additionally, 80% said their parents have communicated with their manager at least once, including 67% who reported multiple instances. During these interactions, the most common topic was their schedule or hours (58%), and the second most common was workplace accommodations (38%).
Gallery
Guess which side I'm on.
Miscellany
