Market Charts
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(Unless otherwise noted, points on the charts represent thoughts on only directionality, not price or time)
This is a mess and I am confused. If I am guessing correctly, we will go generally up for a while, but a short term down move should be upon us. The long-term turning point is at 12/31/24, plus or minus approximately a month.
Bitcoin
This says that bitcoin is going to have a down sequence before the next major bull leg.
US dollar
Very bearish chart - but not in the short term. The dollar should rally in here for a while.
I am in disagreement with a number of impressive analysts who say that the dollar will continue to rally upward, wreaking havoc on the world economy. Listen to them; not me. The long-term turning point is 12/13/24, plus or minus about a month.
Gold
Looks like a down leg in here before the next rally.
Well, it has been relentless and there is more where that came from. Something is happening under the covers. Gold has lost its correlation to real interest rates. I tend to follow Luke Gromen's thought that gold will begin to take its place in the global financial system, generally as part of the beginning of the new age we are entering. The long-term turning point is 1/6/25, plus or minus about a month.
Oil
I have been bearish crude for a long time and I still think crude is bearish. However, we are coming up on what could be an important turning point. The long-term turning point is 12/5/24, plus or minus about a month.
TBonds
Here's the deal. I'm in the US-dollar-must-weaken-to-have-any-chance-of-saving-the-economy camp. Simplistically, this means that yields have to stay down and treasury debt has to rise. That is not what is reflected in my chart. We are at a cycle high and my daily analysis says the peak in bonds / low in rates should occur in a few weeks. We therefore should know soon (weeks) how this conundrum will resolve itself. The long-term turning point is 1/17/25, plus or minus about a month.
CPI
This indicates that inflation is on a decline to something on the order of 5.5% before increasing to its next peak at around 11.4%.