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Market Charts

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(Unless otherwise noted, points on the charts represent thoughts on only directionality, not price or time)

S&P 500      Bitcoin      US dollar      Gold      Oil      TBonds   CPI   

S&P 500

S&P 500

This is a mess and I am confused. If I am guessing correctly, we will go generally up for a while, but a short term down move should be upon us. The long-term turning point is at 12/31/24, plus or minus approximately a month.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

This says that bitcoin is going to have a down sequence before the next major bull leg.

US dollar

US dollar

Very bearish chart - but not in the short term. The dollar should rally in here for a while. 

I am in disagreement with a number of impressive analysts who say that the dollar will continue to rally upward, wreaking havoc on the world economy. Listen to them; not me. The long-term turning point is 12/13/24, plus or minus about a month.

Gold

Gold

Looks like a down leg in here before the next rally.

Well, it has been relentless and there is more where that came from. Something is happening under the covers. Gold has lost its correlation to real interest rates. I tend to follow Luke Gromen's thought that gold will begin to take its place in the global financial system, generally as part of the beginning of the new age we are entering. The long-term turning point is 1/6/25, plus or minus about a month.

Oil

Oil

I have been bearish crude for a long time and I still think crude is bearish.  However, we are coming up on what could be an important turning point. The long-term turning point is 12/5/24, plus or minus about a month.

TBonds

TBonds

Here's the deal. I'm in the US-dollar-must-weaken-to-have-any-chance-of-saving-the-economy camp. Simplistically, this means that yields have to stay down and treasury debt has to rise. That is not what is reflected in my chart. We are at a cycle high and my daily analysis says the peak in bonds / low in rates should occur in a few weeks. We therefore should know soon (weeks) how this conundrum will resolve itself. The long-term turning point is 1/17/25, plus or minus about a month.

CPI

CPI

This indicates that inflation is on a decline to something on the order of 5.5% before increasing to its next peak at around 11.4%.

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