Market Charts
Please Read the Disclaimer
(Unless otherwise noted, points on the charts represent thoughts on only directionality, not price or time)
I'm still confused and this is my best guess. If I am correct, the markets will make new highs.
Bitcoin
This says that bitcoin is going to have a bad several weeks before the bull reawakens.
US dollar
Very bearish chart.
I am in disagreement with a number of impressive analysts who say that the dollar will continue to rally upward, wreaking havoc on the world economy. Listen to them; not me.
Gold
Well, it has been relentless and there is more where that came from. Something is happening under the covers. Gold has lost its correlation to real interest rates. I tend to follow Luke Gromen's thought that gold will begin to take its place in the global financial system, generally as part of the beginning of the new age we are entering.
Oil
I have been bearish crude for a long time and I still think crude is very bearish. The top for this leg up may be in.
TBonds
Here's the deal. I'm in the US-dollar-must-weaken-to-have-any-chance-of-saving-the-economy camp. Simplistically, this means that yields have to stay down and treasury debt has to rise. That is not what is reflected in my chart. We are at a cycle high and my daily analysis says the peak in bonds / low in rates should occur in a few weeks. We therefore should know soon (weeks) how this conundrum will resolve itself.
CPI
This indicates that inflation is on a decline to something on the order of 5.5% before increasing to its next peak at around 11.4%.