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Market Charts

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(Unless otherwise noted, points on the charts represent thoughts on only directionality, not price or time)

S&P 500      Bitcoin      US dollar      Gold      Oil      TBonds   CPI   

S&P 500

S&P 500

This is a mess and I am confused. If I am guessing correctly, we are heading down, but not yet confirmed and the move up in the markets this week has complicated things. The current long-term turning point is at 12/31/24, plus or minus approximately a month. The next turning point, for an upturn, is 2/18/25, plus or minus approximately a month. There is an argument that we have made the 2/18 low and are heading for new highs on May 6, plus or minus approximately a month.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has not quite yet made its high. Look for a nice down move after the high.

US dollar

US dollar

Very bearish chart - and we have likely made the top. 

I am in disagreement with a number of impressive analysts who say that the dollar will continue to rally upward, wreaking havoc on the world economy. Listen to them; not me. The next long-term turning point is 3/147/25, plus or minus about a month. .

Gold

Gold

We should have a retracement within the bull market in here. The world has turned upside down with gold, the dollar and interest rates all increasing at the same time.

I tend to follow Luke Gromen's thought that gold will begin to take its place in the global financial system, generally as part of the beginning of the new age we are entering. The next long-term turning point down is 1/6/25, plus or minus about a month, and the next one up is 2/17/25, plus or minus about a month.

Oil

Oil

I have been bearish crude for a long time and I still think crude is bearish.  The next long-term turning point, which could mark the bottom in crude, is 6/9/25, plus or minus about a month, and it looks like we have started down to what could be a major bottom.

TBonds

TBonds

It looks like bonds will go higher before a big move lower. The next long-term turning point down is 3/1/25, plus or minus about a month.

CPI

CPI

This indicates that inflation is on a decline to something on the order of 5.5% before increasing to its next peak at around 11.4%.

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